tegwick
2c2a6073ff
T06: optimization-case schema, fail-closed evaluator, cadence and decision template. Every option including the baseline must present all ten decision fields; one unknown blocks the comparison. Validated on the storage case (Hetzner computes and loses to Scaleway by EUR 29.14/month on operator labour; Host Europe blocks on four named gaps) and on the non-storage reef-railiance k3s rightsizing case (low utilization is real, but nothing is costable while the railiance01 price is unknown). T07: portfolio report over coverage, lifecycle, utilization, cost, renewals, risks, open cases, and next actions, derived only from committed evidence. Portfolio spend is reported null rather than as a partial sum, unattributed cost is a named list rather than a spread, and unmeasurable resources are reported rather than dropped. RESOURCE-WP-0003 is finished; both cases remain blocked_on_evidence against live delegated records in other repositories. RESOURCE-WP-0002 is untouched. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
74 lines
5 KiB
Markdown
74 lines
5 KiB
Markdown
# Portfolio reporting and operating cadence
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`make portfolio-report` renders the current portfolio view from
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`tools/portfolio_report.py`. The report is derived entirely from committed
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evidence: resource records in `data/resources/`, the latest
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`data/portfolio-coverage-*.json`, and the optimization cases in
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`data/optimization/`. Nothing in it is typed by hand.
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## What the report answers
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| Section | Question |
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| `coverage` | Which service groups are represented, and which evidence gaps are still delegated and to whom. |
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| `lifecycle` | How many resources sit in each lifecycle state, and whether any lacks an owner. |
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| `utilization` | Provisioned versus observed capacity per metric, flagged `idle`, `normal`, or `saturated`; and which resources cannot be measured at all. |
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| `cost` | Which resources carry price evidence, which do not, and which have no allocation method so their cost reaches no consumer. |
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| `renewals` | Contract dates inside the 90-day horizon, and resources with no recorded dates at all. |
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| `risks` | Concentrated failure domains, unpriced resources, unattributed cost, idle and saturated capacity. |
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| `optimization` | Open cases, their per-option verdicts, and the named evidence blocking each one. |
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| `next_actions` | The smallest set of evidence that would unblock the most decisions, addressed to the repository that owns it. |
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## Not forcing false precision
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Two rules the report holds to, because the alternative is a number that looks
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authoritative and is not:
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- **`known_monthly_spend_eur` is `null`, not `0`.** No booked cost has reached
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this repository, and six of seven resources carry no price evidence. Summing
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what happens to be known would report a portfolio spend an order of magnitude
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below reality. The figure stays unknown until `fin-hub` delivers booked facts
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under `docs/fin-hub-resource-control-contract-v0.1.md`.
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- **Unattributed cost is a list, not a spread.** Four resources have allocation
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mode `unattributed`. Their cost is not divided across consumers by a plausible
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default; they are named, and the allocation driver is owed by the repository
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that owns the resource.
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Resources that cannot be measured appear in `utilization.unmeasured` with the
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reason, rather than being silently omitted from the ratios.
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## Cadence
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| Rhythm | When | Inputs | Consumers | Output |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| **Monthly observation** | First week, for the closed month | Monthly actual records from delegated telemetry; booked costs from `fin-hub` | resource-control | `tools/control_cycle.py` variance per resource; a new optimization case where variance is attributed to demand, price, or allocation rather than data quality |
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| **Monthly portfolio report** | With the observation | Resource records, coverage, optimization cases | Human operator; owning repositories | `make portfolio-report`; the `next_actions` list is re-sent to the repositories named in it |
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| **Quarterly calibration** | End of quarter | Three months of variance | resource-control; `fin-hub` | Forecast revisions per `docs/forecast-actual-control.md` — revisions, never overwrites; refreshed provider prices in every open case |
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| **Pre-renewal review** | At least 60 days before the earliest `renews_on` or `cancel_by` | Contract evidence, utilization, open cases | Human financial authority | A `renewal` case, decided while cancellation is still possible |
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| **Event-driven** | Sustained variance beyond threshold, an incident exposing a failure domain, or a workload request | The triggering evidence | Owning repository | A case of the matching type per `docs/optimization-cases.md` |
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## Reading the current report
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As of 2026-08-14 an operator asking the four questions this cadence exists to
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answer gets these answers, and the honest ones are the useful ones:
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- **Material spend?** Unknown, and explicitly so. Only the proposed backup
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storage carries price evidence. Every other resource is waiting on
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`RAIL-HO-WP-0008` and `FIN-WP-0004`.
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- **Idle or saturated capacity?** `railiance01` and the `reef-railiance` k3s
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cluster are idle on every measured metric — 14 percent CPU, 37 percent memory.
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Nothing is saturated. Five resources cannot be measured at all.
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- **Forecast error?** Not yet computable. The control-cycle mechanism is proven
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on paired examples, but no operational actual observation exists, so there is
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no variance to report and none is fabricated.
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- **Approaching commitments?** None visible — and that is itself the finding:
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six active resources have no renewal or cancellation date recorded, so the
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cancellation window cannot be respected for any of them.
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- **Next evidence-backed action?** The `next_actions` list, led by the seven
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delegated workplans that own the missing evidence.
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The single largest structural risk the report surfaces is concentration: six of
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seven resources share `host:railiance01`, including the backup storage's own
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intended protection target. That is the standing argument for placing backup
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storage outside the Host Europe failure domain, and it is visible in the report
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rather than only in prose.
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