42 lines
2.1 KiB
Markdown
42 lines
2.1 KiB
Markdown
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# Reality checkpoints
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Regular comparison of the GADM adoption band and model readings with
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observed economic, sociological and technical data. Method:
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`research/ScenarioBandMethod.md` § 6. Workplan: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010.
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## Files
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| File | Purpose |
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|---|---|
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| `schedule.md` | phase windows; every run checks it first |
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| `PLAYBOOK.md` | step-by-step instructions for the executing agent |
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| `IndicatorCatalog.md` | indicators, jurisdictions, sources, mapping to model quantities |
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| `predictions.md` | append-only register of pre-registered predictions |
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| `YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-<kind>.md` | one record per checkpoint run |
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## Protocol
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1. **Window check.** Is today inside an active window in `schedule.md` for
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this kind? If not, record an `out-of-window` no-op and stop.
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2. **Collect.** Gather the indicators for this kind from `IndicatorCatalog.md`:
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`light` = adoption, investment and sentiment indicators; `full` = all
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catalog sections. Use the most recent published value, and record value,
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unit, reference period, publication date and source URL. Never invent a
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value: if it isn't found, record `not found` and the sources tried.
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3. **Compare.** For every indicator with an entry in `predictions.md`, locate
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the observation in the band (which anchor B1–B4 it tracks), and mark it
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*inside* or *outside* the band. Indicators without a registered prediction
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are recorded as observations only.
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4. **Assess.** Short notes per jurisdiction: which archetype and band anchor
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reality currently tracks, notable legislation or sentiment changes, and
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surprises.
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5. **Record.** Write `checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-<kind>.md` from the template
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in `PLAYBOOK.md`. Append the observations to the matching entries in
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`predictions.md`. Never edit earlier predictions or observations.
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6. **No silent re-tuning.** Model changes suggested by a checkpoint become an
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intake (`intakes/intakes.md`) or a workplan task. Parameter changes go
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through `models/ParameterGrounding.md`.
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7. **Complete.** Commit and push, then post a State Hub progress event with
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`event_type: assembly_checkpoint` and `detail`: `repo`, `date`, `kind`,
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`path`, `in_band`, `out_of_band`, `not_found`.
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