ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T02 (part): checkpoint protocol, playbook, schedule, catalog v0.1, register; activity definitions

- checkpoints/: schedule (phase windows, authoritative), README protocol,
  PLAYBOOK for the executing agent, IndicatorCatalog v0.1 (light + full),
  append-only predictions register
- activity-definitions/: setup-daily (13-15 Oct 2026), monthly-2026,
  quarterly, annual; agent-session label routes to rein-aharness

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
This commit is contained in:
tegwick 2026-10-12 18:21:55 +02:00
parent 1b0a28361e
commit 72feabf573
12 changed files with 381 additions and 16 deletions

View file

@ -2,11 +2,20 @@
# Custodian Brief — assembly-economics
**Domain:** communication
**Last synced:** 2026-10-12 08:56 UTC
**Last synced:** 2026-10-12 08:58 UTC
**State Hub:** http://127.0.0.1:8000 *(adjust if running on a remote machine)*
## Active Workstreams
### Adoption band and jurisdiction scenarios
Progress: 2/6 done | workplan_id: `6b369628-11d2-5418-ba12-5d48238ec3a7`
**Open tasks:**
- · Sentiment and legitimacy loop `81a7d2fa`
- · Jurisdiction archetypes `863d6962`
- · Global sensitivity per band anchor `b89f22a2`
- · Pre-registered predictions v1 `ebac215f`
### Reality checkpoints: indicators, prediction register, recurring comparison
Progress: 0/4 done | workplan_id: `a878617a-bde6-5690-9b8d-f44c72f253dc`
@ -16,17 +25,6 @@ Progress: 0/4 done | workplan_id: `a878617a-bde6-5690-9b8d-f44c72f253dc`
- · Checkpoint protocol and prediction register format `f03b5bbe`
- · Baseline checkpoint 2026-Q4 `2d236d7f`
### Adoption band and jurisdiction scenarios
Progress: 0/6 done | workplan_id: `6b369628-11d2-5418-ba12-5d48238ec3a7`
**Open tasks:**
- · Band anchors including the aggressive self-enhancing case `f0e01f88`
- · Probe all scenarios across the band `48054e06`
- · Sentiment and legitimacy loop `81a7d2fa`
- · Jurisdiction archetypes `863d6962`
- · Global sensitivity per band anchor `b89f22a2`
- · Pre-registered predictions v1 `ebac215f`
## Inbox Hygiene
**Stale unread:** 2 message(s) older than 3 day(s) — triage at session start.

View file

@ -17,7 +17,7 @@
| workplan | ASSEMBLY-WP-0007 | proposed | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0007-gadm-sectors-goods.md |
| workplan | ASSEMBLY-WP-0008 | finished | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-empirical-grounding.md |
| workplan | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009 | active | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md |
| workplan | ASSEMBLY-WP-0010 | ready | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-reality-checkpoints.md |
| workplan | ASSEMBLY-WP-0010 | active | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-reality-checkpoints.md |
| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-T01 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-statehub-bootstrap.md |
| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-T02 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-statehub-bootstrap.md |
| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-T03 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-statehub-bootstrap.md |
@ -66,8 +66,8 @@
| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-T03 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-empirical-grounding.md |
| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-T04 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-empirical-grounding.md |
| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-T05 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-empirical-grounding.md |
| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T01 | todo | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md |
| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T02 | todo | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md |
| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T01 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md |
| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T02 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md |
| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T03 | todo | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md |
| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T04 | todo | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md |
| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T05 | todo | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md |

View file

@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
---
id: assembly-checkpoint-annual
name: "Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Annual"
enabled: false
owner: custodian-agent
governance: custodian
status: proposed
trigger:
type: cron
cron_expression: "0 8 20 1 *"
timezone: Europe/Berlin
misfire_policy: skip
context_sources: []
---
# Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Annual
Domain definition owned by `assembly-economics` (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010). Railiance
projection: `activity-core/k8s/railiance/20-runtime.yaml`
(ConfigMap `actcore-external-activity-definitions`).
Steady state: full checkpoint on 20 Jan from 2027.
Execution: rein-aharness claims the ops_run and runs the `agent-session`
approach in the `assembly-economics` checkout. The session follows
`checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md`; the window guard in `checkpoints/schedule.md` is
authoritative for dates. Completion: State Hub progress event
`assembly_checkpoint` with `detail.repo`, `detail.date`, `detail.kind`,
`detail.path`.
```rule
id: emit-assembly-checkpoint-annual
action:
task_template: "Assembly Economics reality checkpoint (full) — steady phase"
description: >
Run a full reality checkpoint for assembly-economics. Follow
checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md exactly: window check against
checkpoints/schedule.md first; collect the full indicators from
checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md with sources (never invent values);
compare against checkpoints/predictions.md; write
checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-full.md; append observations; commit and
push; post progress event_type=assembly_checkpoint with detail.repo,
detail.date, detail.kind, detail.path.
target_repo: assembly-economics
priority: medium
labels: ["agent-session", "assembly-checkpoint", "research", "automated"]
```

View file

@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
---
id: assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026
name: "Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Monthly (Nov–Dec 2026)"
enabled: false
owner: custodian-agent
governance: custodian
status: proposed
trigger:
type: cron
cron_expression: "0 8 15 11,12 *"
timezone: Europe/Berlin
misfire_policy: skip
context_sources: []
---
# Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Monthly (Nov–Dec 2026)
Domain definition owned by `assembly-economics` (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010). Railiance
projection: `activity-core/k8s/railiance/20-runtime.yaml`
(ConfigMap `actcore-external-activity-definitions`).
Transition phase: light checkpoints on 15 Nov and 15 Dec 2026. Fires every year; the window guard makes later years no-ops, and the definition is disabled after 2026.
Execution: rein-aharness claims the ops_run and runs the `agent-session`
approach in the `assembly-economics` checkout. The session follows
`checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md`; the window guard in `checkpoints/schedule.md` is
authoritative for dates. Completion: State Hub progress event
`assembly_checkpoint` with `detail.repo`, `detail.date`, `detail.kind`,
`detail.path`.
```rule
id: emit-assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026
action:
task_template: "Assembly Economics reality checkpoint (light) — transition phase"
description: >
Run a light reality checkpoint for assembly-economics. Follow
checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md exactly: window check against
checkpoints/schedule.md first; collect the light indicators from
checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md with sources (never invent values);
compare against checkpoints/predictions.md; write
checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-light.md; append observations; commit and
push; post progress event_type=assembly_checkpoint with detail.repo,
detail.date, detail.kind, detail.path.
target_repo: assembly-economics
priority: medium
labels: ["agent-session", "assembly-checkpoint", "research", "automated"]
```

View file

@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
---
id: assembly-checkpoint-quarterly
name: "Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Quarterly"
enabled: false
owner: custodian-agent
governance: custodian
status: proposed
trigger:
type: cron
cron_expression: "0 8 15 1,4,7,10 *"
timezone: Europe/Berlin
misfire_policy: skip
context_sources: []
---
# Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Quarterly
Domain definition owned by `assembly-economics` (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010). Railiance
projection: `activity-core/k8s/railiance/20-runtime.yaml`
(ConfigMap `actcore-external-activity-definitions`).
Steady state: light checkpoints on 15 Jan, Apr, Jul and Oct from 2027.
Execution: rein-aharness claims the ops_run and runs the `agent-session`
approach in the `assembly-economics` checkout. The session follows
`checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md`; the window guard in `checkpoints/schedule.md` is
authoritative for dates. Completion: State Hub progress event
`assembly_checkpoint` with `detail.repo`, `detail.date`, `detail.kind`,
`detail.path`.
```rule
id: emit-assembly-checkpoint-quarterly
action:
task_template: "Assembly Economics reality checkpoint (light) — steady phase"
description: >
Run a light reality checkpoint for assembly-economics. Follow
checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md exactly: window check against
checkpoints/schedule.md first; collect the light indicators from
checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md with sources (never invent values);
compare against checkpoints/predictions.md; write
checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-light.md; append observations; commit and
push; post progress event_type=assembly_checkpoint with detail.repo,
detail.date, detail.kind, detail.path.
target_repo: assembly-economics
priority: medium
labels: ["agent-session", "assembly-checkpoint", "research", "automated"]
```

View file

@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
---
id: assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily
name: "Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Setup (daily, 13–15 Oct 2026)"
enabled: false
owner: custodian-agent
governance: custodian
status: proposed
trigger:
type: cron
cron_expression: "0 8 13-15 10 *"
timezone: Europe/Berlin
misfire_policy: skip
context_sources: []
---
# Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Setup (daily, 13–15 Oct 2026)
Domain definition owned by `assembly-economics` (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010). Railiance
projection: `activity-core/k8s/railiance/20-runtime.yaml`
(ConfigMap `actcore-external-activity-definitions`).
Setup phase: daily light checkpoints on 13-15 Oct 2026 to verify the pipeline end to end. Fires on 13-15 Oct of every year; the executor's window guard (checkpoints/schedule.md) turns later years into no-ops, and the definition is disabled after 2026 (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T04).
Execution: rein-aharness claims the ops_run and runs the `agent-session`
approach in the `assembly-economics` checkout. The session follows
`checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md`; the window guard in `checkpoints/schedule.md` is
authoritative for dates. Completion: State Hub progress event
`assembly_checkpoint` with `detail.repo`, `detail.date`, `detail.kind`,
`detail.path`.
```rule
id: emit-assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily
action:
task_template: "Assembly Economics reality checkpoint (light) — setup phase"
description: >
Run a light reality checkpoint for assembly-economics. Follow
checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md exactly: window check against
checkpoints/schedule.md first; collect the light indicators from
checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md with sources (never invent values);
compare against checkpoints/predictions.md; write
checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-light.md; append observations; commit and
push; post progress event_type=assembly_checkpoint with detail.repo,
detail.date, detail.kind, detail.path.
target_repo: assembly-economics
priority: medium
labels: ["agent-session", "assembly-checkpoint", "research", "automated"]
```

View file

@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
# Checkpoint indicator catalog
**Status:** v0.1 (minimal, for setup runs). ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T01 extends it to
full sensor bundles for all stocks (`metrics/MetricsCatalog.md`).
Jurisdictions: **US**, **EU** (with Germany where available), **Argentina**
(the owner's hypotheses: the EU lags, Argentina may thrive). Add others only
with a reason.
Mapping caveat: these indicators are *proxies*. None of them equals the model
quantity. Band positions are judged from several proxies together, never from
one.
## Light checkpoint: adoption, investment, sentiment, legislation
| # | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Primary source | Model quantity (proxy for) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L1 | Share of firms using AI to produce goods or services | US | U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS) | K_Ω adoption breadth |
| L2 | Share of enterprises using AI technologies | EU, DE | Eurostat, ICT usage in enterprises (AI module) | K_Ω adoption breadth |
| L3 | AI use by firms or workers | AR | INDEC / national ICT surveys, or OECD / IDB regional data | K_Ω adoption breadth |
| L4 | Share of tasks or conversations by occupation; automation vs. augmentation | global, per country where published | Anthropic Economic Index; comparable usage indices | K_Ω task share, automation share |
| L5 | AI-related investment (data-center capex, information-processing equipment) as share of GDP or of GDP growth | US, EU | BEA; Fed / central bank notes; company capex guidance | organism investment `aO` |
| L6 | Public sentiment toward AI (benefit vs. harm, trust) | US, EU, AR | Pew Research; Eurobarometer; Edelman Trust Barometer; Latinobarómetro | sentiment Σ |
| L7 | AI legislation milestones since the last checkpoint | US (federal and state), EU (AI Act implementation), AR | official journals; legislative trackers | legislation levers (permissiveness, `m`, `expl`) |
## Full checkpoint: additions (annual)
| # | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Primary source | Model quantity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Labour share of income | US, EU, AR | BLS / BEA, Eurostat, INDEC | claims breadth B, wage share |
| F2 | Market concentration (top-firm sales shares, HHI) in digital sectors | US, EU | competition authorities, academic trackers | domination P (market, infrastructure channels) |
| F3 | Leading-firm displacement / persistence | US | Bessen et al. series and updates | self-reinforcement r_k |
| F4 | Time use: leisure, TV, social media | US (ATUS), EU (HETUS where available) | BLS ATUS; DataReportal | attention headroom A |
| F5 | Informal care hours | US, EU | AARP/NAC; Eurofound | care load |
| F6 | Displaced-worker re-employment by age | US | BLS Displaced Worker Survey (biennial) | senior agency modifiers |
| F7 | Public R&D share of GDP; open-source investment initiatives | US, EU, DE | OECD MSTI; national data | commons investment IX |
| F8 | Energy use of data centers | US, EU | IEA; national energy agencies | ecological draw of K_Ω (`e2`) |

56
checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md Normal file
View file

@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
# Checkpoint playbook (executor instructions)
You are running a **reality checkpoint** for the `assembly-economics`
repository. Work only inside this repository. Keep the run within budget:
a `light` checkpoint should take well under 15 minutes.
## Steps
1. Determine today's date in Europe/Berlin and the run kind (`light` or
`full`) from the task title.
2. Read `checkpoints/schedule.md`. If today is not inside an active window for
this kind, write `checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-out-of-window.md` (one line
saying so), commit, push, post the completion event with `in_band: 0`,
and stop.
3. Read `checkpoints/README.md` (protocol) and `checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md`.
4. For each indicator of this kind, search for the most recent published
value. Prefer the primary source listed in the catalog. Record value,
unit, reference period, publication date and URL. If you can't find it,
record `not found` and the sources tried. Do **not** estimate or invent
values.
5. Compare with `checkpoints/predictions.md` where an entry exists.
6. Write the record using the template below, then append the observations
to `predictions.md` under the matching entries (append-only).
7. Commit with the message `Checkpoint YYYY-MM-DD (<kind>)`, then push.
8. Post the completion event (README step 7).
If something blocks you (no network, push rejected, catalog missing), still
write the record with the blocker stated, and report the failure. A recorded
failure is a valid outcome of a setup run.
## Record template
```markdown
# Checkpoint YYYY-MM-DD (<kind>)
- Model version: <from models/README.md>
- Phase: <setup | transition | steady>
- Executor: <agent / harness>
## Observations
| Indicator | Jurisdiction | Value | Unit | Reference period | Published | Source | Band position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
## Assessment
- <jurisdiction>: <tracks archetype / band anchor>; notable changes; surprises.
## Not found
- <indicator>: sources tried
## Follow-ups
- <intake or task suggestions, if any>
```

41
checkpoints/README.md Normal file
View file

@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
# Reality checkpoints
Regular comparison of the GADM adoption band and model readings with
observed economic, sociological and technical data. Method:
`research/ScenarioBandMethod.md` § 6. Workplan: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010.
## Files
| File | Purpose |
|---|---|
| `schedule.md` | phase windows; every run checks it first |
| `PLAYBOOK.md` | step-by-step instructions for the executing agent |
| `IndicatorCatalog.md` | indicators, jurisdictions, sources, mapping to model quantities |
| `predictions.md` | append-only register of pre-registered predictions |
| `YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-<kind>.md` | one record per checkpoint run |
## Protocol
1. **Window check.** Is today inside an active window in `schedule.md` for
this kind? If not, record an `out-of-window` no-op and stop.
2. **Collect.** Gather the indicators for this kind from `IndicatorCatalog.md`:
`light` = adoption, investment and sentiment indicators; `full` = all
catalog sections. Use the most recent published value, and record value,
unit, reference period, publication date and source URL. Never invent a
value: if it isn't found, record `not found` and the sources tried.
3. **Compare.** For every indicator with an entry in `predictions.md`, locate
the observation in the band (which anchor B1–B4 it tracks), and mark it
*inside* or *outside* the band. Indicators without a registered prediction
are recorded as observations only.
4. **Assess.** Short notes per jurisdiction: which archetype and band anchor
reality currently tracks, notable legislation or sentiment changes, and
surprises.
5. **Record.** Write `checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-<kind>.md` from the template
in `PLAYBOOK.md`. Append the observations to the matching entries in
`predictions.md`. Never edit earlier predictions or observations.
6. **No silent re-tuning.** Model changes suggested by a checkpoint become an
intake (`intakes/intakes.md`) or a workplan task. Parameter changes go
through `models/ParameterGrounding.md`.
7. **Complete.** Commit and push, then post a State Hub progress event with
`event_type: assembly_checkpoint` and `detail`: `repo`, `date`, `kind`,
`path`, `in_band`, `out_of_band`, `not_found`.

View file

@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
# Prediction register (append-only)
Pre-registered predictions from the current model version, and the
observations recorded against them at later checkpoints. **Never edit or
delete an entry.** Revised predictions are added as new entries that
reference the entry they supersede.
The first substantive predictions (band ranges per anchor for catalog
indicators) are written by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06. Until then, checkpoints
record observations only.
## Entry format
```markdown
### P-YYYY-NNN — <indicator> (<jurisdiction>), horizon <date>
- Registered: <date>, model <version>, by <workplan task>
- Proxy mapping: <how the model quantity maps onto the indicator>
- Band: B1 <range> · B2 <range> · B3 <range> · B4 <range>
- Observations:
- <checkpoint date>: <value> (<source>) → <band position>
```
## Entries
(none yet)

20
checkpoints/schedule.md Normal file
View file

@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
# Checkpoint schedule
Authoritative phase windows for the reality checkpoints
(`research/ScenarioBandMethod.md` § 6). Cron triggers in activity-core cannot
express years, so **every executor run checks this file first**. If today
(Europe/Berlin) is not inside an active window for the run's kind, the
executor records an `out-of-window` no-op and stops.
| Phase | Kind | Window (inclusive) | Dates | Trigger definition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| setup | `light` | 2026-10-13 – 2026-10-15 | daily | `assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily` |
| transition | `light` | 2026-11-01 – 2026-12-31 | 15th of each month | `assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026` |
| steady | `light` | from 2027-01-01 | 15 Jan / Apr / Jul / Oct | `assembly-checkpoint-quarterly` |
| steady | `full` | from 2027-01-01 | 20 Jan | `assembly-checkpoint-annual` |
All runs fire at 08:00 Europe/Berlin.
**Housekeeping:** after 2026-12-31, disable `assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily`
and `assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026` in activity-core (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T04).
The window guard above makes a late disable harmless.

View file

@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ trackers. Store in `checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md`, linked to
```task
id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T02
status: todo
status: progress
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "f03b5bbe-a40f-54a6-a77f-cdf18cc77950"
```