ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T02 (part): checkpoint protocol, playbook, schedule, catalog v0.1, register; activity definitions
- checkpoints/: schedule (phase windows, authoritative), README protocol, PLAYBOOK for the executing agent, IndicatorCatalog v0.1 (light + full), append-only predictions register - activity-definitions/: setup-daily (13-15 Oct 2026), monthly-2026, quarterly, annual; agent-session label routes to rein-aharness Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Assistant: claude-code Assistant-Model: opus Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001 Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
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# Custodian Brief — assembly-economics
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**Domain:** communication
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**Last synced:** 2026-10-12 08:56 UTC
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**Last synced:** 2026-10-12 08:58 UTC
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**State Hub:** http://127.0.0.1:8000 *(adjust if running on a remote machine)*
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## Active Workstreams
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### Adoption band and jurisdiction scenarios
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Progress: 2/6 done | workplan_id: `6b369628-11d2-5418-ba12-5d48238ec3a7`
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**Open tasks:**
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- · Sentiment and legitimacy loop `81a7d2fa`
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- · Jurisdiction archetypes `863d6962`
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- · Global sensitivity per band anchor `b89f22a2`
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- · Pre-registered predictions v1 `ebac215f`
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### Reality checkpoints: indicators, prediction register, recurring comparison
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Progress: 0/4 done | workplan_id: `a878617a-bde6-5690-9b8d-f44c72f253dc`
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@ -16,17 +25,6 @@ Progress: 0/4 done | workplan_id: `a878617a-bde6-5690-9b8d-f44c72f253dc`
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- · Checkpoint protocol and prediction register format `f03b5bbe`
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- · Baseline checkpoint 2026-Q4 `2d236d7f`
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### Adoption band and jurisdiction scenarios
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Progress: 0/6 done | workplan_id: `6b369628-11d2-5418-ba12-5d48238ec3a7`
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**Open tasks:**
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- · Band anchors including the aggressive self-enhancing case `f0e01f88`
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- · Probe all scenarios across the band `48054e06`
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- · Sentiment and legitimacy loop `81a7d2fa`
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- · Jurisdiction archetypes `863d6962`
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- · Global sensitivity per band anchor `b89f22a2`
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- · Pre-registered predictions v1 `ebac215f`
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## Inbox Hygiene
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**Stale unread:** 2 message(s) older than 3 day(s) — triage at session start.
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@ -17,7 +17,7 @@
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| workplan | ASSEMBLY-WP-0007 | proposed | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0007-gadm-sectors-goods.md |
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| workplan | ASSEMBLY-WP-0008 | finished | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-empirical-grounding.md |
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| workplan | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009 | active | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md |
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| workplan | ASSEMBLY-WP-0010 | ready | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-reality-checkpoints.md |
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| workplan | ASSEMBLY-WP-0010 | active | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-reality-checkpoints.md |
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| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-T01 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-statehub-bootstrap.md |
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| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-T02 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-statehub-bootstrap.md |
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| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-T03 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-statehub-bootstrap.md |
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@ -66,8 +66,8 @@
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| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-T03 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-empirical-grounding.md |
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| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-T04 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-empirical-grounding.md |
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| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-T05 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-empirical-grounding.md |
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| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T01 | todo | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md |
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| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T02 | todo | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md |
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| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T01 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md |
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| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T02 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md |
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| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T03 | todo | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md |
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| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T04 | todo | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md |
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| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T05 | todo | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md |
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47
activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-annual.md
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47
activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-annual.md
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---
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id: assembly-checkpoint-annual
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name: "Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Annual"
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enabled: false
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owner: custodian-agent
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governance: custodian
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status: proposed
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trigger:
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type: cron
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cron_expression: "0 8 20 1 *"
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timezone: Europe/Berlin
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misfire_policy: skip
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context_sources: []
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---
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# Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Annual
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Domain definition owned by `assembly-economics` (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010). Railiance
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projection: `activity-core/k8s/railiance/20-runtime.yaml`
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(ConfigMap `actcore-external-activity-definitions`).
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Steady state: full checkpoint on 20 Jan from 2027.
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Execution: rein-aharness claims the ops_run and runs the `agent-session`
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approach in the `assembly-economics` checkout. The session follows
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`checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md`; the window guard in `checkpoints/schedule.md` is
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authoritative for dates. Completion: State Hub progress event
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`assembly_checkpoint` with `detail.repo`, `detail.date`, `detail.kind`,
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`detail.path`.
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```rule
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id: emit-assembly-checkpoint-annual
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action:
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task_template: "Assembly Economics reality checkpoint (full) — steady phase"
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description: >
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Run a full reality checkpoint for assembly-economics. Follow
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checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md exactly: window check against
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checkpoints/schedule.md first; collect the full indicators from
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checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md with sources (never invent values);
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compare against checkpoints/predictions.md; write
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checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-full.md; append observations; commit and
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push; post progress event_type=assembly_checkpoint with detail.repo,
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detail.date, detail.kind, detail.path.
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target_repo: assembly-economics
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priority: medium
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labels: ["agent-session", "assembly-checkpoint", "research", "automated"]
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```
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47
activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026.md
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47
activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026.md
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---
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id: assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026
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name: "Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Monthly (Nov–Dec 2026)"
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enabled: false
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owner: custodian-agent
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governance: custodian
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status: proposed
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trigger:
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type: cron
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cron_expression: "0 8 15 11,12 *"
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timezone: Europe/Berlin
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misfire_policy: skip
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context_sources: []
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---
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# Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Monthly (Nov–Dec 2026)
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Domain definition owned by `assembly-economics` (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010). Railiance
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projection: `activity-core/k8s/railiance/20-runtime.yaml`
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(ConfigMap `actcore-external-activity-definitions`).
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Transition phase: light checkpoints on 15 Nov and 15 Dec 2026. Fires every year; the window guard makes later years no-ops, and the definition is disabled after 2026.
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Execution: rein-aharness claims the ops_run and runs the `agent-session`
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approach in the `assembly-economics` checkout. The session follows
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`checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md`; the window guard in `checkpoints/schedule.md` is
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authoritative for dates. Completion: State Hub progress event
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`assembly_checkpoint` with `detail.repo`, `detail.date`, `detail.kind`,
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`detail.path`.
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```rule
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id: emit-assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026
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action:
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task_template: "Assembly Economics reality checkpoint (light) — transition phase"
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description: >
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Run a light reality checkpoint for assembly-economics. Follow
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checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md exactly: window check against
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checkpoints/schedule.md first; collect the light indicators from
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checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md with sources (never invent values);
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compare against checkpoints/predictions.md; write
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checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-light.md; append observations; commit and
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push; post progress event_type=assembly_checkpoint with detail.repo,
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detail.date, detail.kind, detail.path.
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target_repo: assembly-economics
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priority: medium
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labels: ["agent-session", "assembly-checkpoint", "research", "automated"]
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```
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47
activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-quarterly.md
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47
activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-quarterly.md
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---
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id: assembly-checkpoint-quarterly
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name: "Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Quarterly"
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enabled: false
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owner: custodian-agent
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governance: custodian
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status: proposed
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trigger:
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type: cron
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cron_expression: "0 8 15 1,4,7,10 *"
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timezone: Europe/Berlin
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misfire_policy: skip
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context_sources: []
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---
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# Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Quarterly
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Domain definition owned by `assembly-economics` (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010). Railiance
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projection: `activity-core/k8s/railiance/20-runtime.yaml`
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(ConfigMap `actcore-external-activity-definitions`).
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Steady state: light checkpoints on 15 Jan, Apr, Jul and Oct from 2027.
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Execution: rein-aharness claims the ops_run and runs the `agent-session`
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approach in the `assembly-economics` checkout. The session follows
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`checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md`; the window guard in `checkpoints/schedule.md` is
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authoritative for dates. Completion: State Hub progress event
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`assembly_checkpoint` with `detail.repo`, `detail.date`, `detail.kind`,
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`detail.path`.
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```rule
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id: emit-assembly-checkpoint-quarterly
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action:
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task_template: "Assembly Economics reality checkpoint (light) — steady phase"
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description: >
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Run a light reality checkpoint for assembly-economics. Follow
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checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md exactly: window check against
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checkpoints/schedule.md first; collect the light indicators from
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checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md with sources (never invent values);
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compare against checkpoints/predictions.md; write
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checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-light.md; append observations; commit and
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push; post progress event_type=assembly_checkpoint with detail.repo,
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detail.date, detail.kind, detail.path.
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target_repo: assembly-economics
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priority: medium
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labels: ["agent-session", "assembly-checkpoint", "research", "automated"]
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```
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47
activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily.md
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47
activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily.md
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---
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id: assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily
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name: "Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Setup (daily, 13–15 Oct 2026)"
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enabled: false
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owner: custodian-agent
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governance: custodian
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status: proposed
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trigger:
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type: cron
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cron_expression: "0 8 13-15 10 *"
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timezone: Europe/Berlin
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misfire_policy: skip
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context_sources: []
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---
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# Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Setup (daily, 13–15 Oct 2026)
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Domain definition owned by `assembly-economics` (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010). Railiance
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projection: `activity-core/k8s/railiance/20-runtime.yaml`
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(ConfigMap `actcore-external-activity-definitions`).
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Setup phase: daily light checkpoints on 13-15 Oct 2026 to verify the pipeline end to end. Fires on 13-15 Oct of every year; the executor's window guard (checkpoints/schedule.md) turns later years into no-ops, and the definition is disabled after 2026 (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T04).
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Execution: rein-aharness claims the ops_run and runs the `agent-session`
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approach in the `assembly-economics` checkout. The session follows
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`checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md`; the window guard in `checkpoints/schedule.md` is
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authoritative for dates. Completion: State Hub progress event
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`assembly_checkpoint` with `detail.repo`, `detail.date`, `detail.kind`,
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`detail.path`.
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|
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```rule
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id: emit-assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily
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action:
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task_template: "Assembly Economics reality checkpoint (light) — setup phase"
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description: >
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Run a light reality checkpoint for assembly-economics. Follow
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checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md exactly: window check against
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checkpoints/schedule.md first; collect the light indicators from
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checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md with sources (never invent values);
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compare against checkpoints/predictions.md; write
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checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-light.md; append observations; commit and
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push; post progress event_type=assembly_checkpoint with detail.repo,
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detail.date, detail.kind, detail.path.
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target_repo: assembly-economics
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priority: medium
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labels: ["agent-session", "assembly-checkpoint", "research", "automated"]
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```
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37
checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md
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37
checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md
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# Checkpoint indicator catalog
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**Status:** v0.1 (minimal, for setup runs). ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T01 extends it to
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full sensor bundles for all stocks (`metrics/MetricsCatalog.md`).
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Jurisdictions: **US**, **EU** (with Germany where available), **Argentina**
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(the owner's hypotheses: the EU lags, Argentina may thrive). Add others only
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with a reason.
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Mapping caveat: these indicators are *proxies*. None of them equals the model
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quantity. Band positions are judged from several proxies together, never from
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one.
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## Light checkpoint: adoption, investment, sentiment, legislation
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| # | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Primary source | Model quantity (proxy for) |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| L1 | Share of firms using AI to produce goods or services | US | U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS) | K_Ω adoption breadth |
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| L2 | Share of enterprises using AI technologies | EU, DE | Eurostat, ICT usage in enterprises (AI module) | K_Ω adoption breadth |
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| L3 | AI use by firms or workers | AR | INDEC / national ICT surveys, or OECD / IDB regional data | K_Ω adoption breadth |
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| L4 | Share of tasks or conversations by occupation; automation vs. augmentation | global, per country where published | Anthropic Economic Index; comparable usage indices | K_Ω task share, automation share |
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| L5 | AI-related investment (data-center capex, information-processing equipment) as share of GDP or of GDP growth | US, EU | BEA; Fed / central bank notes; company capex guidance | organism investment `aO` |
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| L6 | Public sentiment toward AI (benefit vs. harm, trust) | US, EU, AR | Pew Research; Eurobarometer; Edelman Trust Barometer; Latinobarómetro | sentiment Σ |
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| L7 | AI legislation milestones since the last checkpoint | US (federal and state), EU (AI Act implementation), AR | official journals; legislative trackers | legislation levers (permissiveness, `m`, `expl`) |
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## Full checkpoint: additions (annual)
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| # | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Primary source | Model quantity |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| F1 | Labour share of income | US, EU, AR | BLS / BEA, Eurostat, INDEC | claims breadth B, wage share |
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| F2 | Market concentration (top-firm sales shares, HHI) in digital sectors | US, EU | competition authorities, academic trackers | domination P (market, infrastructure channels) |
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| F3 | Leading-firm displacement / persistence | US | Bessen et al. series and updates | self-reinforcement r_k |
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| F4 | Time use: leisure, TV, social media | US (ATUS), EU (HETUS where available) | BLS ATUS; DataReportal | attention headroom A |
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| F5 | Informal care hours | US, EU | AARP/NAC; Eurofound | care load |
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| F6 | Displaced-worker re-employment by age | US | BLS Displaced Worker Survey (biennial) | senior agency modifiers |
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| F7 | Public R&D share of GDP; open-source investment initiatives | US, EU, DE | OECD MSTI; national data | commons investment IX |
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| F8 | Energy use of data centers | US, EU | IEA; national energy agencies | ecological draw of K_Ω (`e2`) |
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56
checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md
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56
checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md
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# Checkpoint playbook (executor instructions)
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You are running a **reality checkpoint** for the `assembly-economics`
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repository. Work only inside this repository. Keep the run within budget:
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a `light` checkpoint should take well under 15 minutes.
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## Steps
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1. Determine today's date in Europe/Berlin and the run kind (`light` or
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`full`) from the task title.
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2. Read `checkpoints/schedule.md`. If today is not inside an active window for
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||||
this kind, write `checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-out-of-window.md` (one line
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saying so), commit, push, post the completion event with `in_band: 0`,
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and stop.
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3. Read `checkpoints/README.md` (protocol) and `checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md`.
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4. For each indicator of this kind, search for the most recent published
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value. Prefer the primary source listed in the catalog. Record value,
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unit, reference period, publication date and URL. If you can't find it,
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record `not found` and the sources tried. Do **not** estimate or invent
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values.
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5. Compare with `checkpoints/predictions.md` where an entry exists.
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6. Write the record using the template below, then append the observations
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to `predictions.md` under the matching entries (append-only).
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7. Commit with the message `Checkpoint YYYY-MM-DD (<kind>)`, then push.
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8. Post the completion event (README step 7).
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If something blocks you (no network, push rejected, catalog missing), still
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write the record with the blocker stated, and report the failure. A recorded
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failure is a valid outcome of a setup run.
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## Record template
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```markdown
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# Checkpoint YYYY-MM-DD (<kind>)
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|
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- Model version: <from models/README.md>
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- Phase: <setup | transition | steady>
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- Executor: <agent / harness>
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## Observations
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| Indicator | Jurisdiction | Value | Unit | Reference period | Published | Source | Band position |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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## Assessment
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||||
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- <jurisdiction>: <tracks archetype / band anchor>; notable changes; surprises.
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||||
## Not found
|
||||
|
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- <indicator>: sources tried
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||||
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## Follow-ups
|
||||
|
||||
- <intake or task suggestions, if any>
|
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```
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41
checkpoints/README.md
Normal file
41
checkpoints/README.md
Normal file
|
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# Reality checkpoints
|
||||
|
||||
Regular comparison of the GADM adoption band and model readings with
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observed economic, sociological and technical data. Method:
|
||||
`research/ScenarioBandMethod.md` § 6. Workplan: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010.
|
||||
|
||||
## Files
|
||||
|
||||
| File | Purpose |
|
||||
|---|---|
|
||||
| `schedule.md` | phase windows; every run checks it first |
|
||||
| `PLAYBOOK.md` | step-by-step instructions for the executing agent |
|
||||
| `IndicatorCatalog.md` | indicators, jurisdictions, sources, mapping to model quantities |
|
||||
| `predictions.md` | append-only register of pre-registered predictions |
|
||||
| `YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-<kind>.md` | one record per checkpoint run |
|
||||
|
||||
## Protocol
|
||||
|
||||
1. **Window check.** Is today inside an active window in `schedule.md` for
|
||||
this kind? If not, record an `out-of-window` no-op and stop.
|
||||
2. **Collect.** Gather the indicators for this kind from `IndicatorCatalog.md`:
|
||||
`light` = adoption, investment and sentiment indicators; `full` = all
|
||||
catalog sections. Use the most recent published value, and record value,
|
||||
unit, reference period, publication date and source URL. Never invent a
|
||||
value: if it isn't found, record `not found` and the sources tried.
|
||||
3. **Compare.** For every indicator with an entry in `predictions.md`, locate
|
||||
the observation in the band (which anchor B1–B4 it tracks), and mark it
|
||||
*inside* or *outside* the band. Indicators without a registered prediction
|
||||
are recorded as observations only.
|
||||
4. **Assess.** Short notes per jurisdiction: which archetype and band anchor
|
||||
reality currently tracks, notable legislation or sentiment changes, and
|
||||
surprises.
|
||||
5. **Record.** Write `checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-<kind>.md` from the template
|
||||
in `PLAYBOOK.md`. Append the observations to the matching entries in
|
||||
`predictions.md`. Never edit earlier predictions or observations.
|
||||
6. **No silent re-tuning.** Model changes suggested by a checkpoint become an
|
||||
intake (`intakes/intakes.md`) or a workplan task. Parameter changes go
|
||||
through `models/ParameterGrounding.md`.
|
||||
7. **Complete.** Commit and push, then post a State Hub progress event with
|
||||
`event_type: assembly_checkpoint` and `detail`: `repo`, `date`, `kind`,
|
||||
`path`, `in_band`, `out_of_band`, `not_found`.
|
||||
25
checkpoints/predictions.md
Normal file
25
checkpoints/predictions.md
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
|
|||
# Prediction register (append-only)
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-registered predictions from the current model version, and the
|
||||
observations recorded against them at later checkpoints. **Never edit or
|
||||
delete an entry.** Revised predictions are added as new entries that
|
||||
reference the entry they supersede.
|
||||
|
||||
The first substantive predictions (band ranges per anchor for catalog
|
||||
indicators) are written by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06. Until then, checkpoints
|
||||
record observations only.
|
||||
|
||||
## Entry format
|
||||
|
||||
```markdown
|
||||
### P-YYYY-NNN — <indicator> (<jurisdiction>), horizon <date>
|
||||
- Registered: <date>, model <version>, by <workplan task>
|
||||
- Proxy mapping: <how the model quantity maps onto the indicator>
|
||||
- Band: B1 <range> · B2 <range> · B3 <range> · B4 <range>
|
||||
- Observations:
|
||||
- <checkpoint date>: <value> (<source>) → <band position>
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
## Entries
|
||||
|
||||
(none yet)
|
||||
20
checkpoints/schedule.md
Normal file
20
checkpoints/schedule.md
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
|
|||
# Checkpoint schedule
|
||||
|
||||
Authoritative phase windows for the reality checkpoints
|
||||
(`research/ScenarioBandMethod.md` § 6). Cron triggers in activity-core cannot
|
||||
express years, so **every executor run checks this file first**. If today
|
||||
(Europe/Berlin) is not inside an active window for the run's kind, the
|
||||
executor records an `out-of-window` no-op and stops.
|
||||
|
||||
| Phase | Kind | Window (inclusive) | Dates | Trigger definition |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| setup | `light` | 2026-10-13 – 2026-10-15 | daily | `assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily` |
|
||||
| transition | `light` | 2026-11-01 – 2026-12-31 | 15th of each month | `assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026` |
|
||||
| steady | `light` | from 2027-01-01 | 15 Jan / Apr / Jul / Oct | `assembly-checkpoint-quarterly` |
|
||||
| steady | `full` | from 2027-01-01 | 20 Jan | `assembly-checkpoint-annual` |
|
||||
|
||||
All runs fire at 08:00 Europe/Berlin.
|
||||
|
||||
**Housekeeping:** after 2026-12-31, disable `assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily`
|
||||
and `assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026` in activity-core (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T04).
|
||||
The window guard above makes a late disable harmless.
|
||||
|
|
@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ trackers. Store in `checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md`, linked to
|
|||
|
||||
```task
|
||||
id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T02
|
||||
status: todo
|
||||
status: progress
|
||||
priority: high
|
||||
state_hub_task_id: "f03b5bbe-a40f-54a6-a77f-cdf18cc77950"
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Loading…
Add table
Add a link
Reference in a new issue