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assembly-economics/checkpoints/predictions.md
tegwick 72feabf573 ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T02 (part): checkpoint protocol, playbook, schedule, catalog v0.1, register; activity definitions 
- checkpoints/: schedule (phase windows, authoritative), README protocol,
  PLAYBOOK for the executing agent, IndicatorCatalog v0.1 (light + full),
  append-only predictions register
- activity-definitions/: setup-daily (13-15 Oct 2026), monthly-2026,
  quarterly, annual; agent-session label routes to rein-aharness

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
2026-10-12 18:21:55 +02:00

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Prediction register (append-only)

Pre-registered predictions from the current model version, and the observations recorded against them at later checkpoints. Never edit or delete an entry. Revised predictions are added as new entries that reference the entry they supersede.

The first substantive predictions (band ranges per anchor for catalog indicators) are written by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06. Until then, checkpoints record observations only.

Entry format

### P-YYYY-NNN — <indicator> (<jurisdiction>), horizon <date>
- Registered: <date>, model <version>, by <workplan task>
- Proxy mapping: <how the model quantity maps onto the indicator>
- Band: B1 <range> · B2 <range> · B3 <range> · B4 <range>
- Observations:
  - <checkpoint date>: <value> (<source>) → <band position>

Entries

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