coulomb/assembly-economics
5
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull requests Projects Releases Packages Wiki Activity Actions

ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-T03: phi_r 0.15 and xn 0.6 grounded (Anthropic Economic Index, GitHub Octoverse); GADM-0.5 experiments re-run; BR-011 update

Browse source 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
This commit is contained in:
tegwick 2026-10-13 23:33:04 +02:00
parent 78d79ac4e3
commit e04bb8250c
8 changed files with 145 additions and 94 deletions
Download patch file Download diff file Expand all files Collapse all files

46
models/GADM-0.5.md
View file

@ -18,8 +18,9 @@ Non-rival output flows into commons X as far as it is openly inheritable:
(physical capital `e1 K_phys dem thr` plus compute energy `e2 K_Ω`).
φ_r = 1 and xn = 0 reproduce GADM-0.4 exactly.
Priors: φ_r = 0.2 (organism use is dominated by information tasks, Anthropic
Economic Index); xn = 0.3 (about the commons formation rate aX).
Priors at first: φ_r = 0.2, xn = 0.3. Grounded values (§ 6): φ_r = 0.15
(range 0.05–0.25), xn = 0.6. The tables in §§ 1–4 were computed with the
priors; § 6 lists what changes.
### 1.2 Results across the band (`nonrival.py`, `results/nonrival.md`)
@ -252,3 +253,44 @@ Readings:
Information services (non-rival) support decoupling. Automation of physical
production (rival) does not. The checkpoints should watch φ_r through L4
(task shares) and E5 (material intensity) together.
## 6. Grounding of the non-rival parameters (ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-T03)
**φ_r, the rival share of organism output.** Anthropic Economic Index: AI
use concentrates in information occupations:
- computer and mathematical: 37 % (February 2025) and 32 % (Claude.ai, 2026
wave), against 3.4 % of workers;
- arts and media: 10 %;
- education: 9–14 %;
- office: 8 %;
- transportation: 0.3 % (9 % of workers).
The direct share of physical-output occupations is at most about 0.05. Adding
AI use that indirectly supports physical production (engineering, logistics,
management) gives **φ_r 0.05–0.25, central 0.15**.
**xn, the commons feed.** In 2025, 18.5 % of GitHub contributions went to
public repositories (Octoverse 2025: 81.5 % private). Taken as the open share
of non-rival output and divided by lineage openness (0.3): **xn ≈ 0.6**. This
depends on `lin_open`. For a J3-like jurisdiction (lin_open 0.1), the same
measured share would mean xn ≈ 1.8.
**Effect on the readings** (all re-run with the new defaults; tables in
`results/`):
| Reading | Priors (φ_r 0.2, xn 0.3) | Grounded (φ_r 0.15, xn 0.6) |
|---|---|---|
| non-rival VFAC gain, baseline B1–B4 | +0.015 to +0.049 | +0.038 to +0.077 |
| non-rival VFAC gain, generative regime | ≤ +0.007 | ≤ +0.011 |
| decoupled decades with demand split, generative B2 / B3 / B4 | 0.45 / 0.71 / 0.22 | 0.69 / 0.71 / 0.25 |
| class most hit by organism growth | sinks > renewables > materials | unchanged |
| selection capture (attention oligopoly / generative) | +0.11–0.14 / −0.16 to −0.24 | +0.11–0.13 / −0.16 to −0.24 |
**Consequence for BR-011.** Task data support φ_r ≤ 0.25, which is
inconsistent with the EU dematerialization fit (0.66). The EU's slower
dematerialization since 2010 is therefore unlikely to come from rival AI
output. It points to non-AI factors that GADM lacks: industrial structure,
the energy mix of material processing, offshoring. With the task-data
φ_r, the decoupling reading holds. The EU fit remains the warning case, if
future AI use shifts toward automating physical production.

2
research/BreakRegister.md
View file

@ -23,4 +23,4 @@ that part of the band.
| BR-008 | 2026-10-13 (WP-0011-T05) | Which levers bound domination (BR-007 follow-up) | closed model: host rights levers → coupled model: only host access rules on foreign operators and the home's levers reach the foreign-run channels | measured channels (Pd, Pmem, Plin, Pi) are operated from the US for EU and AR hosts | **structural, implemented:** cross-border coupling (`world.py`); observed DMA effect on search ≈ 0 (at most a 0.006/yr) | update 2026-10-13 (WP-0016-T01): a host lineage access rule does reach imported-lineage concentration (EU Plin 0.91 → 0.19 at a 0.15); portability needs the domestic lineage market's concentration (CB3) |
| BR-009 | 2026-10-13 (WP-0012) | Sentiment dynamics of the legitimacy loop | Σ relaxes toward 0.5 + gain × Δ(perceived benefit), so from the measured US Σ 0.285 it rises → measured US sentiment fell 2021–2026 (0.405 → 0.285) while adoption grew fast | the neutral reference 0.5 is an assumption; US adoption also shows no braking by low sentiment (all loop-on candidates fail the US match) | **resolved 2026-10-13 (WP-0017-T01):** parameter `sig_ref`; calibrated runs anchor Σ at its measured level, and adoption and legislation respond to changes relative to it. Default (None = 0.5) keeps earlier results. R1–R4 and H1/H2 verdicts unchanged; the matching loop weights become ≈ 0.5 | resolved; `sig_adopt` not yet identified |
| BR-010 | 2026-10-13 (WP-0007-T01) | Non-rival growth decouples welfare from throughput (core hypothesis, GADM-0.1 § 14) | output split rival / non-rival (GADM-0.5-dev): no genuine decoupling in any anchor; the generative regime's ecological cost unchanged | GADM has no demand composition: non-rival output adds to, but never replaces, rival consumption | **resolved 2026-10-13 (WP-0007-T04):** two-good demand split; the generative regime decouples in 45–71 % of decades at B2–B3, and its sinks breach moves 15–50 years later; band-dependent (none at B1) | resolved; calibration to observed dematerialization open (WP-0018) |
| BR-011 | 2026-10-13 (WP-0018-T01) | Genuine decoupling in the generative regime (BR-010 resolution) | holds for φ_r ≤ 0.2 (task-data prior; DE dematerialization fit 0.15) → disappears at φ_r 0.66 (EU dematerialization fit) | the reading depends on the rival share of organism output, which the 2010–2024 data constrain only weakly (pre-generative-AI) | none structural; empirical: watch L4 task shares and E5 material intensity after 2024 | open |
| BR-011 | 2026-10-13 (WP-0018-T01) | Genuine decoupling in the generative regime (BR-010 resolution) | holds for φ_r ≤ 0.2 (task-data prior; DE dematerialization fit 0.15) → disappears at φ_r 0.66 (EU dematerialization fit) | the reading depends on the rival share of organism output, which the 2010–2024 data constrain only weakly (pre-generative-AI) | none structural; empirical: watch L4 task shares and E5 material intensity after 2024. Update (WP-0018-T03): task data give φ_r 0.05–0.25, so the EU fit points to non-AI factors; the reading holds at the task-data φ_r | open, leaning toward 'holds' |

9
simulations/gadm02/gadm05.py
View file

@ -12,8 +12,11 @@ Extends gadm04 through two base-model parameters (gadm02):
The ecological draw was already physical (e1 K_phys) plus compute energy
(e2 K_Omega) in GADM-0.2 to 0.4; it is unchanged. Scope: models/GADM-Sectors-Scope.md § 1.
Priors: phi_r = 0.2 (organism use is dominated by information tasks: code,
writing, analysis; Anthropic Economic Index), xn = 0.3 (about aX).
Grounded values (ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-T03): phi_r = 0.15, range 0.05-0.25 (Anthropic Economic
Index: AI use concentrates in information occupations, computer and mathematical 32-37 %,
transportation 0.3 %; the range adds indirect support of physical production). xn = 0.6: 18.5 % of
GitHub contributions in 2025 went to public repositories (Octoverse), divided by lineage
openness lin_open 0.3. Earlier priors: phi_r 0.2, xn 0.3.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
@ -25,7 +28,7 @@ import gadm04 as g4
MODEL_VERSION = "GADM-0.5-dev"
STOCKS = g4.STOCKS
INIT = g4.INIT
PARAMS = {**g4.PARAMS, "phi_r": 0.2, "xn": 0.3}
PARAMS = {**g4.PARAMS, "phi_r": 0.15, "xn": 0.6}
def simulate(params: dict | None = None, init: dict | None = None, **kw) -> list[dict]:

60
simulations/gadm02/results/demand.md
View file

@ -7,38 +7,38 @@ years 0–10 (observed EU dematerialization ≈ −1.6 %/year).
| Scenario | Anchor | Case | VFAC t100 | rival demand share Cr t100 | intensity trend | decoupled windows | sinks breach | Es t100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (current trends) | B1 | no demand split | 0.377 | 1.00 | +0.0 % | 0.00 | — | 0.32 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B1 | split (λ 0.05, ε 2) | 0.381 | 0.93 | +0.0 % | 0.28 | — | 0.34 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B1 | split, strong (λ 0.1, ε 4) | 0.387 | 0.84 | +0.0 % | 0.44 | — | 0.36 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B2 | no demand split | 0.321 | 1.00 | -0.1 % | 0.00 | — | 0.35 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B2 | split (λ 0.05, ε 2) | 0.326 | 0.73 | -0.1 % | 0.00 | — | 0.37 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B2 | split, strong (λ 0.1, ε 4) | 0.333 | 0.29 | -0.1 % | 0.00 | — | 0.41 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B3 | no demand split | 0.305 | 1.00 | -0.2 % | 0.04 | — | 0.29 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B3 | split (λ 0.05, ε 2) | 0.311 | 0.56 | -0.2 % | 0.09 | — | 0.31 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B3 | split, strong (λ 0.1, ε 4) | 0.319 | 0.05 | -0.3 % | 0.08 | — | 0.34 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B4 | no demand split | 0.278 | 1.00 | -0.3 % | 0.34 | — | 0.21 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B4 | split (λ 0.05, ε 2) | 0.285 | 0.45 | -0.3 % | 0.37 | — | 0.23 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B4 | split, strong (λ 0.1, ε 4) | 0.290 | 0.05 | -0.3 % | 0.17 | — | 0.24 |
| Generative regime | B1 | no demand split | 0.607 | 1.00 | +0.1 % | 0.00 | t 83 | 0.19 |
| Generative regime | B1 | split (λ 0.05, ε 2) | 0.613 | 0.89 | +0.0 % | 0.00 | — | 0.21 |
| Generative regime | B1 | split, strong (λ 0.1, ε 4) | 0.622 | 0.74 | +0.0 % | 0.00 | — | 0.23 |
| Generative regime | B2 | no demand split | 0.583 | 1.00 | -0.1 % | 0.00 | t 49 | 0.17 |
| Generative regime | B2 | split (λ 0.05, ε 2) | 0.598 | 0.70 | -0.1 % | 0.45 | t 98 | 0.20 |
| Generative regime | B2 | split, strong (λ 0.1, ε 4) | 0.640 | 0.05 | -0.1 % | 0.89 | — | 0.30 |
| Generative regime | B3 | no demand split | 0.564 | 1.00 | -0.3 % | 0.00 | t 37 | 0.15 |
| Generative regime | B3 | split (λ 0.05, ε 2) | 0.585 | 0.53 | -0.3 % | 0.71 | t 61 | 0.19 |
| Generative regime | B3 | split, strong (λ 0.1, ε 4) | 0.614 | 0.05 | -0.4 % | 0.75 | — | 0.25 |
| Generative regime | B4 | no demand split | 0.509 | 1.00 | -0.4 % | 0.00 | t 29 | 0.14 |
| Generative regime | B4 | split (λ 0.05, ε 2) | 0.533 | 0.31 | -0.4 % | 0.22 | t 40 | 0.19 |
| Generative regime | B4 | split, strong (λ 0.1, ε 4) | 0.546 | 0.05 | -0.5 % | 0.34 | — | 0.21 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B1 | no demand split | 0.397 | 1.00 | +0.0 % | 0.00 | — | 0.31 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B1 | split (λ 0.05, ε 2) | 0.402 | 0.91 | +0.0 % | 0.00 | — | 0.33 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B1 | split, strong (λ 0.1, ε 4) | 0.411 | 0.81 | +0.0 % | 0.46 | — | 0.36 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B2 | no demand split | 0.343 | 1.00 | -0.1 % | 0.00 | — | 0.33 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B2 | split (λ 0.05, ε 2) | 0.353 | 0.67 | -0.1 % | 0.00 | — | 0.36 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B2 | split, strong (λ 0.1, ε 4) | 0.374 | 0.05 | -0.1 % | 0.00 | — | 0.41 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B3 | no demand split | 0.331 | 1.00 | -0.2 % | 0.18 | — | 0.27 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B3 | split (λ 0.05, ε 2) | 0.344 | 0.45 | -0.3 % | 0.26 | — | 0.31 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B3 | split, strong (λ 0.1, ε 4) | 0.354 | 0.05 | -0.3 % | 0.08 | — | 0.33 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B4 | no demand split | 0.303 | 1.00 | -0.3 % | 0.41 | — | 0.21 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B4 | split (λ 0.05, ε 2) | 0.313 | 0.29 | -0.3 % | 0.46 | — | 0.23 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B4 | split, strong (λ 0.1, ε 4) | 0.318 | 0.05 | -0.4 % | 0.14 | — | 0.24 |
| Generative regime | B1 | no demand split | 0.608 | 1.00 | +0.0 % | 0.00 | t 83 | 0.19 |
| Generative regime | B1 | split (λ 0.05, ε 2) | 0.614 | 0.88 | +0.0 % | 0.00 | — | 0.21 |
| Generative regime | B1 | split, strong (λ 0.1, ε 4) | 0.625 | 0.72 | +0.0 % | 0.21 | — | 0.24 |
| Generative regime | B2 | no demand split | 0.585 | 1.00 | -0.1 % | 0.00 | t 49 | 0.17 |
| Generative regime | B2 | split (λ 0.05, ε 2) | 0.602 | 0.67 | -0.1 % | 0.69 | — | 0.20 |
| Generative regime | B2 | split, strong (λ 0.1, ε 4) | 0.645 | 0.05 | -0.1 % | 0.90 | — | 0.30 |
| Generative regime | B3 | no demand split | 0.567 | 1.00 | -0.3 % | 0.00 | t 37 | 0.15 |
| Generative regime | B3 | split (λ 0.05, ε 2) | 0.591 | 0.47 | -0.3 % | 0.71 | t 70 | 0.20 |
| Generative regime | B3 | split, strong (λ 0.1, ε 4) | 0.618 | 0.05 | -0.4 % | 0.73 | — | 0.25 |
| Generative regime | B4 | no demand split | 0.513 | 1.00 | -0.4 % | 0.00 | t 29 | 0.14 |
| Generative regime | B4 | split (λ 0.05, ε 2) | 0.541 | 0.21 | -0.4 % | 0.25 | t 42 | 0.19 |
| Generative regime | B4 | split, strong (λ 0.1, ε 4) | 0.551 | 0.05 | -0.5 % | 0.34 | — | 0.21 |
## Readings and robustness class
| Reading | B1 | B2 | B3 | B4 | class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| decoupled windows, split − none: Baseline (current trends) | +0.280 | +0.000 | +0.050 | +0.030 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
| ΔVFAC split − none: Baseline (current trends) | +0.004 | +0.005 | +0.006 | +0.006 | quantitative shift |
| ΔEs t100 split − none: Baseline (current trends) | +0.014 | +0.026 | +0.025 | +0.017 | quantitative shift |
| decoupled windows, split − none: Generative regime | +0.000 | +0.450 | +0.710 | +0.220 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
| ΔVFAC split − none: Generative regime | +0.006 | +0.015 | +0.021 | +0.024 | quantitative shift |
| ΔEs t100 split − none: Generative regime | +0.015 | +0.032 | +0.041 | +0.045 | quantitative shift |
| decoupled windows, split − none: Baseline (current trends) | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.080 | +0.050 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
| ΔVFAC split − none: Baseline (current trends) | +0.006 | +0.010 | +0.012 | +0.010 | quantitative shift |
| ΔEs t100 split − none: Baseline (current trends) | +0.016 | +0.032 | +0.032 | +0.022 | quantitative shift |
| decoupled windows, split − none: Generative regime | +0.000 | +0.690 | +0.710 | +0.250 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
| ΔVFAC split − none: Generative regime | +0.006 | +0.017 | +0.025 | +0.028 | quantitative shift |
| ΔEs t100 split − none: Generative regime | +0.016 | +0.036 | +0.047 | +0.051 | quantitative shift |

32
simulations/gadm02/results/dematerialization.md
View file

@ -10,30 +10,30 @@ start (Calibration v0.5) with ecological classes. Total throughput per output is
| Jurisdiction | observed | model, no split (φ 0.2) | model, split ε 2 (φ 0.2) | φ_r reproducing the observation (split ε 2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU | -1.85 %/y | -2.45 %/y | -2.89 %/y | 0.66 |
| DE | -2.73 %/y | -2.26 %/y | -2.64 %/y | 0.15 |
| EU | -1.85 %/y | -2.43 %/y | -2.91 %/y | 0.66 |
| DE | -2.73 %/y | -2.23 %/y | -2.66 %/y | 0.16 |
## T04 readings at the prior and at the EU-fitted φ_r (generative regime, material replenishment at rest)
| φ_r | Anchor | decoupled decades no split → split | sinks breach no split → split | VFAC no split → split |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2 | B1 | 0.00 → 0.00 | t 83 → none | 0.607 → 0.613 |
| 0.2 | B2 | 0.00 → 0.45 | t 49 → t 98 | 0.583 → 0.598 |
| 0.2 | B3 | 0.00 → 0.71 | t 37 → t 61 | 0.564 → 0.585 |
| 0.2 | B4 | 0.00 → 0.22 | t 29 → t 40 | 0.509 → 0.533 |
| 0.15 | B1 | 0.00 → 0.00 | t 83 → none | 0.607 → 0.613 |
| 0.15 | B2 | 0.00 → 0.55 | t 49 → none | 0.583 → 0.599 |
| 0.15 | B3 | 0.00 → 0.72 | t 37 → t 67 | 0.564 → 0.587 |
| 0.15 | B4 | 0.00 → 0.24 | t 29 → t 41 | 0.509 → 0.535 |
| 0.66 | B1 | 0.00 → 0.00 | t 84 → t 100 | 0.606 → 0.608 |
| 0.66 | B2 | 0.00 → 0.00 | t 49 → t 58 | 0.582 → 0.588 |
| 0.66 | B3 | 0.00 → 0.00 | t 37 → t 43 | 0.563 → 0.571 |
| 0.66 | B4 | 0.00 → 0.02 | t 29 → t 33 | 0.506 → 0.515 |
| 0.2 | B1 | 0.00 → 0.00 | t 83 → none | 0.608 → 0.614 |
| 0.2 | B2 | 0.00 → 0.55 | t 49 → none | 0.585 → 0.601 |
| 0.2 | B3 | 0.00 → 0.70 | t 37 → t 62 | 0.567 → 0.589 |
| 0.2 | B4 | 0.00 → 0.24 | t 29 → t 40 | 0.512 → 0.538 |
| 0.16 | B1 | 0.00 → 0.00 | t 83 → none | 0.608 → 0.614 |
| 0.16 | B2 | 0.00 → 0.65 | t 49 → none | 0.585 → 0.602 |
| 0.16 | B3 | 0.00 → 0.71 | t 37 → t 68 | 0.567 → 0.591 |
| 0.16 | B4 | 0.00 → 0.25 | t 29 → t 42 | 0.512 → 0.540 |
| 0.66 | B1 | 0.00 → 0.00 | t 83 → t 100 | 0.607 → 0.609 |
| 0.66 | B2 | 0.00 → 0.00 | t 49 → t 58 | 0.583 → 0.589 |
| 0.66 | B3 | 0.00 → 0.00 | t 37 → t 43 | 0.564 → 0.572 |
| 0.66 | B4 | 0.00 → 0.02 | t 29 → t 33 | 0.509 → 0.518 |
## Readings and robustness class
| Reading | B1 | B2 | B3 | B4 | class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| decoupled decades with split, φ_r 0.15 | +0.00 | +0.55 | +0.72 | +0.24 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
| decoupled decades with split, φ_r 0.2 | +0.00 | +0.45 | +0.71 | +0.22 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
| decoupled decades with split, φ_r 0.16 | +0.00 | +0.65 | +0.71 | +0.25 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
| decoupled decades with split, φ_r 0.2 | +0.00 | +0.55 | +0.70 | +0.24 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
| decoupled decades with split, φ_r 0.66 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |

34
simulations/gadm02/results/eco_classes.md
View file

@ -8,35 +8,35 @@ below the floor. t = 100 levels.
| Scenario | Anchor | Er / Ed / Es t100 | renewables below floor | materials below floor | sinks below floor | lowest at t100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (current trends) | B1 | 0.16 / 0.09 / 0.32 | below at start | t 47 | — | materials |
| Baseline (current trends) | B2 | 0.20 / 0.12 / 0.35 | below at start | t 47 | — | materials |
| Baseline (current trends) | B3 | 0.18 / 0.10 / 0.29 | below at start | t 44 | — | materials |
| Baseline (current trends) | B4 | 0.14 / 0.07 / 0.22 | below at start | t 38 | — | materials |
| Baseline (current trends) | B1 | 0.15 / 0.08 / 0.31 | below at start | t 46 | — | materials |
| Baseline (current trends) | B2 | 0.19 / 0.11 / 0.33 | below at start | t 45 | — | materials |
| Baseline (current trends) | B3 | 0.17 / 0.09 / 0.27 | below at start | t 43 | — | materials |
| Baseline (current trends) | B4 | 0.13 / 0.07 / 0.21 | below at start | t 37 | — | materials |
| Generative regime | B1 | 0.08 / 0.02 / 0.19 | below at start | t 30 | t 83 | materials |
| Generative regime | B2 | 0.08 / 0.01 / 0.17 | below at start | t 28 | t 49 | materials |
| Generative regime | B3 | 0.08 / 0.01 / 0.15 | below at start | t 27 | t 37 | materials |
| Generative regime | B3 | 0.08 / 0.01 / 0.15 | below at start | t 26 | t 37 | materials |
| Generative regime | B4 | 0.08 / 0.01 / 0.14 | below at start | t 25 | t 29 | materials |
| Attention oligopoly | B1 | 0.25 / 0.17 / 0.43 | below at start | t 70 | — | materials |
| Attention oligopoly | B2 | 0.25 / 0.17 / 0.40 | below at start | t 69 | — | materials |
| Attention oligopoly | B3 | 0.21 / 0.14 / 0.32 | below at start | t 56 | — | materials |
| Attention oligopoly | B4 | 0.16 / 0.09 / 0.23 | below at start | t 43 | — | materials |
| Attention oligopoly | B1 | 0.24 / 0.16 / 0.42 | below at start | t 67 | — | materials |
| Attention oligopoly | B2 | 0.24 / 0.16 / 0.39 | below at start | t 64 | — | materials |
| Attention oligopoly | B3 | 0.20 / 0.13 / 0.31 | below at start | t 54 | — | materials |
| Attention oligopoly | B4 | 0.15 / 0.09 / 0.22 | below at start | t 42 | — | materials |
## Materials replenishment: at rest today
| Scenario | Anchor | Er / Ed / Es t100 | renewables below floor | materials below floor | sinks below floor | lowest at t100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (current trends) | B1 | 0.16 / 0.47 / 0.32 | below at start | — | — | renewables |
| Baseline (current trends) | B2 | 0.20 / 0.55 / 0.35 | below at start | — | — | renewables |
| Baseline (current trends) | B3 | 0.18 / 0.52 / 0.29 | below at start | — | — | renewables |
| Baseline (current trends) | B4 | 0.14 / 0.45 / 0.21 | below at start | — | — | renewables |
| Baseline (current trends) | B1 | 0.15 / 0.46 / 0.31 | below at start | — | — | renewables |
| Baseline (current trends) | B2 | 0.19 / 0.53 / 0.33 | below at start | — | — | renewables |
| Baseline (current trends) | B3 | 0.17 / 0.49 / 0.27 | below at start | — | — | renewables |
| Baseline (current trends) | B4 | 0.13 / 0.44 / 0.21 | below at start | — | — | renewables |
| Generative regime | B1 | 0.08 / 0.30 / 0.19 | below at start | — | t 83 | renewables |
| Generative regime | B2 | 0.08 / 0.29 / 0.17 | below at start | — | t 49 | renewables |
| Generative regime | B3 | 0.08 / 0.28 / 0.15 | below at start | — | t 37 | renewables |
| Generative regime | B4 | 0.08 / 0.29 / 0.14 | below at start | — | t 29 | renewables |
| Attention oligopoly | B1 | 0.25 / 0.62 / 0.43 | below at start | — | — | renewables |
| Attention oligopoly | B2 | 0.25 / 0.62 / 0.40 | below at start | — | — | renewables |
| Attention oligopoly | B3 | 0.21 / 0.56 / 0.32 | below at start | — | — | renewables |
| Attention oligopoly | B4 | 0.16 / 0.48 / 0.23 | below at start | — | — | renewables |
| Attention oligopoly | B1 | 0.24 / 0.61 / 0.42 | below at start | — | — | renewables |
| Attention oligopoly | B2 | 0.24 / 0.60 / 0.39 | below at start | — | — | renewables |
| Attention oligopoly | B3 | 0.20 / 0.55 / 0.31 | below at start | — | — | renewables |
| Attention oligopoly | B4 | 0.15 / 0.47 / 0.22 | below at start | — | — | renewables |
## Organism growth: class draw attributable to adoption speed (baseline, B4 − B1)

48
simulations/gadm02/results/selection.md
View file

@ -6,35 +6,35 @@ Shock = {'Pd': 0.25, 'Pm': 0.15} added to the starting state. t = 100.
| Scenario | Anchor | VFAC fixed → endogenous | σ fixed → endogenous | capture t0 → t100 (fixed weights at t100) | max endogenous capture change/yr | shock VFAC loss fixed / endogenous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (current trends) | B1 | 0.411 → 0.411 | 0.418 → 0.426 | 0.42 → 0.45 (0.43) | 0.0021 | +0.003 / +0.003 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B2 | 0.353 → 0.353 | 0.366 → 0.389 | 0.42 → 0.55 (0.44) | 0.0020 | -0.000 / -0.000 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B3 | 0.337 → 0.337 | 0.326 → 0.341 | 0.42 → 0.60 (0.48) | 0.0023 | +0.000 / +0.000 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B4 | 0.311 → 0.311 | 0.284 → 0.290 | 0.42 → 0.64 (0.53) | 0.0027 | +0.000 / +0.000 |
| Attention oligopoly | B1 | 0.338 → 0.339 | 0.357 → 0.380 | 0.42 → 0.54 (0.42) | 0.0017 | +0.000 / +0.000 |
| Attention oligopoly | B2 | 0.302 → 0.302 | 0.311 → 0.326 | 0.42 → 0.57 (0.44) | 0.0020 | +0.000 / +0.000 |
| Attention oligopoly | B3 | 0.289 → 0.289 | 0.264 → 0.264 | 0.42 → 0.61 (0.47) | 0.0026 | +0.000 / -0.000 |
| Attention oligopoly | B4 | 0.265 → 0.266 | 0.212 → 0.201 | 0.42 → 0.66 (0.52) | 0.0035 | +0.000 / -0.000 |
| Generative regime, concentrated lineages | B1 | 0.528 → 0.529 | 0.530 → 0.465 | 0.42 → 0.17 (0.44) | 0.0041 | -0.001 / -0.000 |
| Generative regime, concentrated lineages | B2 | 0.474 → 0.475 | 0.479 → 0.474 | 0.42 → 0.38 (0.47) | 0.0036 | -0.004 / -0.003 |
| Generative regime, concentrated lineages | B3 | 0.426 → 0.426 | 0.439 → 0.455 | 0.42 → 0.48 (0.51) | 0.0031 | -0.000 / -0.000 |
| Generative regime, concentrated lineages | B4 | 0.389 → 0.390 | 0.414 → 0.424 | 0.42 → 0.51 (0.55) | 0.0027 | -0.000 / -0.000 |
| Generative regime | B1 | 0.685 → 0.685 | 0.660 → 0.690 | 0.42 → 0.23 (0.47) | 0.0044 | -0.000 / -0.000 |
| Generative regime | B2 | 0.661 → 0.659 | 0.612 → 0.652 | 0.42 → 0.29 (0.50) | 0.0043 | -0.000 / -0.001 |
| Generative regime | B3 | 0.641 → 0.639 | 0.579 → 0.618 | 0.42 → 0.34 (0.53) | 0.0040 | -0.000 / -0.001 |
| Generative regime | B4 | 0.577 → 0.577 | 0.507 → 0.521 | 0.42 → 0.39 (0.55) | 0.0038 | -0.000 / -0.000 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B1 | 0.433 → 0.434 | 0.428 → 0.433 | 0.42 → 0.44 (0.43) | 0.0019 | -0.005 / -0.005 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B2 | 0.378 → 0.378 | 0.372 → 0.389 | 0.42 → 0.54 (0.45) | 0.0019 | -0.001 / -0.001 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B3 | 0.368 → 0.367 | 0.333 → 0.342 | 0.42 → 0.58 (0.48) | 0.0021 | -0.000 / -0.000 |
| Baseline (current trends) | B4 | 0.340 → 0.340 | 0.292 → 0.294 | 0.42 → 0.63 (0.53) | 0.0024 | +0.000 / +0.000 |
| Attention oligopoly | B1 | 0.348 → 0.348 | 0.360 → 0.379 | 0.42 → 0.53 (0.42) | 0.0017 | +0.001 / +0.000 |
| Attention oligopoly | B2 | 0.320 → 0.320 | 0.314 → 0.324 | 0.42 → 0.56 (0.44) | 0.0019 | -0.000 / -0.000 |
| Attention oligopoly | B3 | 0.314 → 0.314 | 0.268 → 0.262 | 0.42 → 0.60 (0.48) | 0.0025 | -0.000 / -0.000 |
| Attention oligopoly | B4 | 0.290 → 0.290 | 0.216 → 0.201 | 0.42 → 0.65 (0.53) | 0.0033 | +0.000 / -0.000 |
| Generative regime, concentrated lineages | B1 | 0.529 → 0.530 | 0.530 → 0.465 | 0.42 → 0.17 (0.44) | 0.0041 | -0.001 / -0.000 |
| Generative regime, concentrated lineages | B2 | 0.477 → 0.478 | 0.479 → 0.474 | 0.42 → 0.38 (0.47) | 0.0036 | -0.004 / -0.003 |
| Generative regime, concentrated lineages | B3 | 0.431 → 0.431 | 0.441 → 0.454 | 0.42 → 0.47 (0.51) | 0.0031 | -0.000 / -0.000 |
| Generative regime, concentrated lineages | B4 | 0.396 → 0.396 | 0.416 → 0.424 | 0.42 → 0.51 (0.55) | 0.0027 | -0.000 / +0.000 |
| Generative regime | B1 | 0.687 → 0.686 | 0.661 → 0.691 | 0.42 → 0.23 (0.47) | 0.0044 | -0.000 / -0.000 |
| Generative regime | B2 | 0.663 → 0.662 | 0.613 → 0.653 | 0.42 → 0.29 (0.50) | 0.0043 | -0.000 / -0.001 |
| Generative regime | B3 | 0.644 → 0.642 | 0.581 → 0.619 | 0.42 → 0.34 (0.53) | 0.0040 | -0.000 / -0.001 |
| Generative regime | B4 | 0.582 → 0.581 | 0.507 → 0.522 | 0.42 → 0.39 (0.55) | 0.0038 | -0.000 / -0.000 |
## Readings and robustness class
| Reading | B1 | B2 | B3 | B4 | class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| endogenous capture at t100 (endogenous − fixed weights): Baseline (current trends) | +0.023 | +0.109 | +0.115 | +0.115 | quantitative shift |
| ΔVFAC endogenous − fixed: Baseline (current trends) | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.000 | -0.000 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
| endogenous capture at t100 (endogenous − fixed weights): Attention oligopoly | +0.114 | +0.131 | +0.138 | +0.141 | robust |
| ΔVFAC endogenous − fixed: Attention oligopoly | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | quantitative shift |
| endogenous capture at t100 (endogenous − fixed weights): Generative regime, concentrated lineages | -0.265 | -0.092 | -0.028 | -0.034 | quantitative shift |
| ΔVFAC endogenous − fixed: Generative regime, concentrated lineages | +0.001 | +0.000 | -0.000 | +0.000 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
| endogenous capture at t100 (endogenous − fixed weights): Generative regime | -0.240 | -0.211 | -0.189 | -0.161 | robust |
| ΔVFAC endogenous − fixed: Generative regime | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.000 | quantitative shift |
| endogenous capture at t100 (endogenous − fixed weights): Baseline (current trends) | +0.010 | +0.097 | +0.100 | +0.099 | quantitative shift |
| ΔVFAC endogenous − fixed: Baseline (current trends) | +0.000 | -0.000 | -0.000 | -0.000 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
| endogenous capture at t100 (endogenous − fixed weights): Attention oligopoly | +0.108 | +0.122 | +0.126 | +0.128 | robust |
| ΔVFAC endogenous − fixed: Attention oligopoly | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.001 | quantitative shift |
| endogenous capture at t100 (endogenous − fixed weights): Generative regime, concentrated lineages | -0.265 | -0.095 | -0.033 | -0.039 | quantitative shift |
| ΔVFAC endogenous − fixed: Generative regime, concentrated lineages | +0.001 | +0.001 | -0.000 | -0.000 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
| endogenous capture at t100 (endogenous − fixed weights): Generative regime | -0.240 | -0.212 | -0.191 | -0.164 | robust |
| ΔVFAC endogenous − fixed: Generative regime | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | -0.001 | quantitative shift |
| shock loss difference (endogenous − fixed), generative regime | -0.000 | -0.000 | -0.000 | -0.000 | quantitative shift |
Largest change of the endogenous part of capture in any run: 0.0044 per year (slow and incremental; grounding test: no flip within a few years).

8
workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-gadm05-grounding.md
View file

@ -64,11 +64,17 @@ class binds next depends on the replenishment.
```task
id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-T03
status: todo
status: done
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "92de5938-90df-5268-b937-e1ea033e0308"
```
**Done 2026-10-13:** φ_r 0.15 (0.05–0.25) from Anthropic Economic Index
occupational shares; xn 0.6 from GitHub's 18.5 % public share of 2025
contributions. GADM-0.5 defaults updated, experiments re-run, readings
unchanged in direction (`models/GADM-0.5.md` § 6). The task data make the EU
dematerialization fit (φ_r 0.66) implausible as an AI effect (BR-011).
Ground φ_r (rival share of organism output; task-level data from the
Anthropic Economic Index, L4) and xn (commons feed; open-licensing shares of
AI-generated output, for example code on public repositories).