assembly-economics/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-gadm05-grounding.md

id	type	title	domain	repo	status	flavor	depends_on	owner	topic_slug	created	updated	state_hub_workstream_id
ASSEMBLY-WP-0018	workplan	GADM-0.5 grounding: dematerialization, ecological classes, non-rival output	communication	assembly-economics	active	residual	ASSEMBLY-WP-0007	claude-code	coulomb-social	2026-10-13	2026-10-13	a34af97f-0000-5186-8abb-c44bc3fd197e

GADM-0.5 grounding

Residuals of ASSEMBLY-WP-0007 (models/GADM-0.5.md). The structural extensions work and pass their grounding tests, but most of their parameters are priors. This workplan grounds them in data, and then decides whether GADM-0.5 replaces GADM-0.4 as the reference model.

Dematerialization: demand split and efficiency trend

id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-T01
status: done
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "ba4ac94a-0351-52d7-8dbf-64fd837f8303"

Done 2026-10-13: on the right operator (material draw per output) the model reproduces the observed trend without an efficiency trend (the first comparison used total throughput, which was wrong). The data constrain φ_r: EU 0.66, DE 0.15. At the EU fit, decoupling disappears (BR-011). Weakly identified, because 2010–2024 is pre-generative-AI. E5 is wired into the full checkpoint (sources.json). dematerialization.py, models/GADM-0.5.md § 5. The efficiency parameter eff remains available (default 0).

Modeled throughput intensity falls 0.1–0.5 % per year; observed EU dematerialization is about 1.6 % per year (resource productivity, Eurostat env_ac_rp / env_ac_mfa, 2000–2022; UNEP IRP for US and AR). Add an autonomous efficiency trend for thr, and fit it with dm_eps and dm_lam to the observed intensity series per jurisdiction. Re-run demand.py. Do the decoupling and sinks-breach readings survive?

Ecological classes: starting levels, loads, replenishment

id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-T02
status: todo
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "3691dd92-6ba0-51f2-8a95-6c569cbe1aab"

Ground the class starting levels (per-boundary control variables, Planetary Health Check), the load shares by class (energy, material and emission intensities of physical capital vs. compute; IEA for data centers), and material replenishment (reserve-to-production ratios over time, USGS). Which class binds next depends on the replenishment.

Non-rival output parameters

id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-T03
status: done
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "92de5938-90df-5268-b937-e1ea033e0308"

Done 2026-10-13: φ_r 0.15 (0.05–0.25) from Anthropic Economic Index occupational shares; xn 0.6 from GitHub's 18.5 % public share of 2025 contributions. GADM-0.5 defaults updated, experiments re-run, readings unchanged in direction (models/GADM-0.5.md § 6). The task data make the EU dematerialization fit (φ_r 0.66) implausible as an AI effect (BR-011).

Ground φ_r (rival share of organism output; task-level data from the Anthropic Economic Index, L4) and xn (commons feed; open-licensing shares of AI-generated output, for example code on public repositories).

Selection weights: speed and links

id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-T04
status: todo
priority: low
state_hub_task_id: "60940505-b8f9-55f6-b55f-aa4075fe10ff"

Ground the weight adjustment speed (0.05 per year) and the capture strengths. Test the candidate link O = Q (1 − Pd) (organism selection quality falls with discovery concentration). Only that would make capture of selection material for VFAC.

GADM-0.5 as reference model

id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-T05
status: todo
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "3aace583-cc0b-58f7-9eb0-e241dcfddc1e"

After T01–T03, decide whether GADM-0.5 (classes, demand split, non-rival output) becomes the reference model for the band probe, the calibration (WP-0013/0015) and the cross-border world (WP-0011/0016). Re-run the key readings and record what changes in the break register.