assembly-economics/checkpoints/README.md
tegwick 72feabf573 ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T02 (part): checkpoint protocol, playbook, schedule, catalog v0.1, register; activity definitions
- checkpoints/: schedule (phase windows, authoritative), README protocol,
  PLAYBOOK for the executing agent, IndicatorCatalog v0.1 (light + full),
  append-only predictions register
- activity-definitions/: setup-daily (13-15 Oct 2026), monthly-2026,
  quarterly, annual; agent-session label routes to rein-aharness

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
2026-10-12 18:21:55 +02:00

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# Reality checkpoints
Regular comparison of the GADM adoption band and model readings with
observed economic, sociological and technical data. Method:
`research/ScenarioBandMethod.md` § 6. Workplan: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010.
## Files
| File | Purpose |
|---|---|
| `schedule.md` | phase windows; every run checks it first |
| `PLAYBOOK.md` | step-by-step instructions for the executing agent |
| `IndicatorCatalog.md` | indicators, jurisdictions, sources, mapping to model quantities |
| `predictions.md` | append-only register of pre-registered predictions |
| `YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-<kind>.md` | one record per checkpoint run |
## Protocol
1. **Window check.** Is today inside an active window in `schedule.md` for
this kind? If not, record an `out-of-window` no-op and stop.
2. **Collect.** Gather the indicators for this kind from `IndicatorCatalog.md`:
`light` = adoption, investment and sentiment indicators; `full` = all
catalog sections. Use the most recent published value, and record value,
unit, reference period, publication date and source URL. Never invent a
value: if it isn't found, record `not found` and the sources tried.
3. **Compare.** For every indicator with an entry in `predictions.md`, locate
the observation in the band (which anchor B1–B4 it tracks), and mark it
*inside* or *outside* the band. Indicators without a registered prediction
are recorded as observations only.
4. **Assess.** Short notes per jurisdiction: which archetype and band anchor
reality currently tracks, notable legislation or sentiment changes, and
surprises.
5. **Record.** Write `checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-<kind>.md` from the template
in `PLAYBOOK.md`. Append the observations to the matching entries in
`predictions.md`. Never edit earlier predictions or observations.
6. **No silent re-tuning.** Model changes suggested by a checkpoint become an
intake (`intakes/intakes.md`) or a workplan task. Parameter changes go
through `models/ParameterGrounding.md`.
7. **Complete.** Commit and push, then post a State Hub progress event with
`event_type: assembly_checkpoint` and `detail`: `repo`, `date`, `kind`,
`path`, `in_band`, `out_of_band`, `not_found`.