assembly-economics/checkpoints/predictions.md

Prediction register (append-only)

Pre-registered predictions from the current model version, and the observations recorded against them at later checkpoints. Never edit or delete an entry. Revised predictions are added as new entries that reference the entry they supersede.

Predictions v1 (P-2026-001 … 004) were registered by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06 on 2026-10-13.

Entry format

### P-YYYY-NNN — <indicator> (<jurisdiction>), horizon <date>
- Registered: <date>, model <version>, by <workplan task>
- Proxy mapping: <how the model quantity maps onto the indicator>
- Band: B1 <range> · B2 <range> · B3 <range> · B4 <range>
- Observations:
  - <checkpoint date>: <value> (<source>) → <band position>

Entries

P-2026-001 — L1 firms using AI (US), horizons 2027-10, 2028-10, 2030-10

• Registered: 2026-10-13, model GADM-0.4, by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06 (simulations/gadm02/predictions_v1.py, results/predictions_v1.md)
• Proxy mapping: BTOS Q7 share ∝ K_Ω near the aligned time t*. Model time is aligned by growth: t* is where K_Ω's one-year ratio equals the observed 1.46 (17.3 % → 23.8 %, 2025 period 24 → 2026 period 20). Base 23.8 %. Archetypes J2 and J3, legitimacy loop off and on.
• Band (value in %, 2027-10 / 2028-10 / 2030-10): B1 30.8–34.5* / 36.7–42.9* / 45.2–52.8* · B2 34.1–34.6 / 40.7–44.0 / 44.4–58.6 · B3 33.6–34.4 / 37.5–42.8 / 36.2–53.5 · B4 33.2–34.6 / 34.2–41.1 / 31.4–44.4 (* some B1 runs cannot reach the observed growth rate at all)
• What separates the anchors: 2027 hardly does (all ~31–35 %). By 2030, B4 predicts a plateau or decline (peak and backlash), B1–B2 continued growth. A value below ~31 % in 2027-10 is outside every anchor.
• Observations:
  • (none yet)
  • 2026-10-12 (checkpoint 0): 23.8 % (BTOS 2026 period 20) → base value of the prediction, not yet a test
  • 2026-10-13: 23.8 % (same period). Short-run growth 19.5 % (period 10) → 23.8 % (period 20) ≈ 1.7× annualized: no slowdown yet; nothing to separate B2 from B3 so far

P-2026-002 — L2 enterprises using AI (EU27), reference years 2026, 2027, 2029

• Registered: 2026-10-13, model GADM-0.4, by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06
• Proxy mapping: Eurostat isoc_eb_ai share (10+ employees) ∝ K_Ω near t*; aligned to the observed one-year ratio 1.48 (13.48 → 19.95, 2024 → 2025). Base 19.95 %. Archetype J1, loop off and on.
• Band (value in %, 2026 / 2027 / 2029): B1 20.7 / 21.4–21.5 / 22.8–23.1* · B2 25.4–27.4 / 30.4–34.1 / 39.5–45.3* · B3 29.2–29.4 / 37.7–37.9 / 52.0–52.3 · B4 29.3–29.5 / 39.4–39.6 / 60.6–60.7 (* under J1 levers, B1 and B2 cannot reach the observed 2025 growth: the observed EU growth already argues against "J1 at B1–B2")
• Observations:
  • (none yet; the 2026 value is expected around mid-2027)

P-2026-003 — L2 enterprises using AI (DE), reference years 2026, 2027, 2029

• Registered: 2026-10-13, model GADM-0.4, by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06
• Proxy mapping: as P-2026-002; observed one-year ratio 1.31 (19.75 → 25.97). Base 25.97 %. Archetype J1, loop off and on.
• Band (value in %, 2026 / 2027 / 2029): B1 26.9–27.0 / 27.9–28.0 / 29.7–30.1* · B2 33.0–34.0 / 39.6–41.2 / 51.5–53.3* · B3 33.8–33.9 / 40.8–41.0 / 52.1–53.0 · B4 34.0 / 42.1–42.4 / 57.7–58.2
• Observations:
  • (none yet)

P-2026-004 — L6 public sentiment toward AI (US, EU), direction to 2028

• Registered: 2026-10-13, model GADM-0.4, by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06
• Proxy mapping: sign only. Σ falling ↔ a rising share of "more concerned than excited" (Pew, US) or of negative views (Eurobarometer, EU). Magnitudes are not mapped (Σ is uncalibrated).
• Band (Δ Σ from now to 2028-10, loop on): US B1 −0.07 · B2 −0.12 · B3 −0.18 · B4 −0.18 (loop off: 0). EU all anchors −0.01 … +0.03 (flat).
• Claim tested: the legitimacy loop of models/AdoptionBand.md § 3. If US sentiment improves clearly while adoption grows as in P-2026-001, the loop as specified is not supported; if it worsens, the loop is supported and the faster anchors gain weight. EU sentiment should move less than US sentiment.
• Observations:
  • (none yet; baseline values to be collected at the first review, L6 manual)
  • 2026-10-13 (baseline, review): US Σ 0.285 (Pew, June 2026: 52 % concerned, 9 % excited; 2021: Σ 0.405). EU Σ ≈ 0.60 (Eurobarometer, fieldwork 2024; different question). AR Σ ≈ 0.43 (La Nación Data, June 2026; secondary). Later observations are compared with these values

Not registered in v1

• L3 (AR): no adoption base value (manual source missing), so no quantitative prediction. Qualitatively, the J2 path predicts the same pattern as the US: fast growth now, and falling sentiment by 2028.
• L5 (US investment) and level predictions: wait for calibration (ASSEMBLY-WP-0013).