Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Assistant: claude-code Assistant-Model: opus Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001 Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
8.4 KiB
Metrics Catalog v0.1
Status: exploratory. Indicators are candidates: their availability, validity and data sources still have to be checked before use.
Each GADM-0.2 stock gets a sensor bundle of four kinds of measure:
- O objective outcome
- St structural
- B behavioral
- Su subjective
Each stock also gets its main Goodhart risk: how optimizing the measure could hollow out the construct.
Rules for using the catalog:
- No stock is reported through a single indicator.
- When indicators in a bundle disagree, record the disagreement as a finding. Do not average it away.
- A stock's normalization to [0, 1] in GADM is a modeling convenience. The catalog keeps the raw indicators.
- Changes to indicators are governed like model changes: versioned, with a rationale (WS-11, governance of metrics).
Concrete sources per jurisdiction for each bundle are listed in
checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md (v0.2).
H — Human capability
| Kind | Candidate indicators |
|---|---|
| O | healthy life expectancy; adult skills proficiency (literacy, numeracy, problem solving) |
| St | coverage of education, care and lifelong-learning provision; mentoring and apprenticeship capacity |
| B | participation in learning after formal education; skill use at work and outside it |
| Su | self-assessed capability to learn and to act on one's goals |
Goodhart risk: credential inflation. Counting certificates instead of usable capability. Organism-assisted performance can mask deskilling (link #40), so measure unassisted capability as well.
X — Assembly commons
| Kind | Candidate indicators |
|---|---|
| O | reuse rate of open components (dependents per open package, citations of open datasets) |
| St | share of critical infrastructure under open standards; share of openly licensed publicly funded research and software |
| B | contribution and maintenance activity in commons projects; maintainer continuity |
| Su | practitioners' perceived ease of building on existing components |
Goodhart risk: publishing without maintenance. Counting released artifacts rather than reusable, maintained ones. Enclosure through dependence on a single steward.
K_phys / K_Ω — Productive capacity and organism capability
| Kind | Candidate indicators |
|---|---|
| O | sustainable output per unit of physical throughput; task coverage of information organisms |
| St | installed automation and compute capacity; number of independent organism lineages |
| B | utilization rates; rate at which organisms are adopted into workflows |
| Su | users' assessment of organism usefulness and reliability |
Goodhart risk: capacity without access. K can rise while effective agency falls (automated-capitalism scenario). Always report K together with B (claims breadth) and P.
F — Risk capacity
| Kind | Candidate indicators |
|---|---|
| O | business formation rate; survival-adjusted re-entry rate after failure |
| St | availability of staged finance, insurance and public risk pools; bankruptcy regime leniency |
| B | share of first-time founders without inherited wealth |
| Su | perceived personal downside of a failed venture |
Goodhart risk: subsidized waste. Raising experiment counts while externalizing harm. Pair with externalized-harm measures (constitutional floor in GADM-0.1 § 21).
G — Effective agency
| Kind | Candidate indicators |
|---|---|
| O | restartability (time × cost × re-entry restrictions, GADM-0.1 § 12); economic mobility |
| St | exit options: provider switching costs, data and organism portability, membrane control held by users |
| B | actual switching, relocation and career-change rates |
| Su | perceived agency and perceived range of reachable futures |
Goodhart risk: formal options without real reach. Measures of legal freedom that ignore material reachability. Organism "access" counted without asking who controls the membrane (link #41).
N — Diversity & composability
| Kind | Candidate indicators |
|---|---|
| O | diversity of firms, products and lineages (entropy measures); interoperability test pass rates |
| St | standards coverage; market concentration per component class |
| B | cross-vendor recombination: products built from components of several sources |
| Su | developers' and founders' perceived lock-in |
Goodhart risk: fragmentation counted as diversity. Variety without composability. Report both halves; GADM treats them jointly for this reason.
Q — Epistemic capacity
| Kind | Candidate indicators |
|---|---|
| O | correction latency (time from error to public correction); forecast accuracy; reproducibility rates |
| St | independent audit coverage; public access to evidence; concentration of information channels |
| B | share of AI-mediated decisions with retrievable provenance and explanation |
| Su | trust calibration: does trust track actual reliability? |
Goodhart risk: measuring trust instead of trustworthiness. High trust in unreliable sources scores well on naive measures. Use calibration, not levels.
P — Domination concentration
| Kind | Candidate indicators |
|---|---|
| O | ownership and market concentration (e.g. Herfindahl–Hirschman indices); concentration of lineage ownership |
| St | infrastructure, discovery and identity dependency; share of membranes controlled by a few operators |
| B | rate of self-preferencing and exclusion events |
| Su | perceived ability to contest decisions by dominant actors |
Reporting requirement (GADM-0.3): report domination per channel
(market, infrastructure, discovery/attention, membrane, lineage,
political), not only in aggregate. In GADM-0.3, a single dominant channel
(discovery at 0.80) coexisted with an aggregate P of only 0.32
(models/GADM-0.3.md § 2.6).
Goodhart risk: measuring wealth instead of power. GADM models power separately from wealth: control of discovery, membranes and infrastructure can be extreme at moderate wealth concentration.
E — Ecological headroom
| Kind | Candidate indicators |
|---|---|
| O | position relative to planetary boundaries; material and energy throughput |
| St | share of circular material flows; energy mix |
| B | compute energy use per unit of organism output (the metabolic draw of K_Ω) |
| Su | — (deliberately empty: ecological headroom is not a perception) |
Goodhart risk: monetary decoupling claimed as physical decoupling. GADM-0.1 § 14 requires physical throughput, not value, as the basis.
S — Social cohesion
| Kind | Candidate indicators |
|---|---|
| O | incidence of violent conflict; legitimacy of institutions in contested decisions |
| St | channels for voice and appeal; plurality of recognition systems |
| B | civic participation; peaceful resolution rates |
| Su | generalized trust; expectation of future participation |
Goodhart risk: suppressed disagreement read as cohesion. GADM defines cohesion as continued legitimate participation under conflict.
A — Attention headroom
| Kind | Candidate indicators |
|---|---|
| O | self-directed time from time-use surveys (time not claimed by work, care obligations or engineered engagement) |
| St | share of attention-facing services funded by engagement; default notification and interruption regimes |
| B | interruptions per hour; share of attention spent in self-chosen versus recommended activities |
| Su | perceived control over one's own attention; reported time scarcity |
Goodhart risk (critical): counting captured attention as a resource.
Engagement metrics measure the opposite of A. Including A in VFAC rewards
extraction unless A measures unclaimed, self-directed attention
(models/InformationOrganismsInGADM.md § 4.1). In GADM-0.2, omitting A
understates attention harm (models/GADM-0.2.md, reading 5).
Derived diagnostics
| Diagnostic | Definition | Caveat |
|---|---|---|
| VFAC | geometric mean of H, X, G, N, Q, S, E, 1 − P, A | Research instrument. Equal exponents damp near-collapse of one stock, so it never replaces floor checks. |
| Claims breadth B | share of output reaching the broad population | Says nothing about agency (dividend-abundance reading). |
| Floor status | share of periods in which a constitutional floor is violated | Floors are non-tradeable; do not aggregate them into VFAC. |