assembly-economics/checkpoints/predictions.md

# Prediction register (append-only)

Pre-registered predictions from the current model version, and the
observations recorded against them at later checkpoints. **Never edit or
delete an entry.** Revised predictions are added as new entries that
reference the entry they supersede.

Predictions v1 (P-2026-001 … 004) were registered by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06 on
2026-10-13.

## Entry format

```markdown
### P-YYYY-NNN — <indicator> (<jurisdiction>), horizon <date>
- Registered: <date>, model <version>, by <workplan task>
- Proxy mapping: <how the model quantity maps onto the indicator>
- Band: B1 <range> · B2 <range> · B3 <range> · B4 <range>
- Observations:
  - <checkpoint date>: <value> (<source>) → <band position>
```

## Entries

### P-2026-001 — L1 firms using AI (US), horizons 2027-10, 2028-10, 2030-10
- Registered: 2026-10-13, model GADM-0.4, by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06
  (`simulations/gadm02/predictions_v1.py`, `results/predictions_v1.md`)
- Proxy mapping: BTOS Q7 share ∝ K_Ω near the aligned time t*. Model time is
  aligned by growth: t* is where K_Ω's one-year ratio equals the observed 1.46
  (17.3 % → 23.8 %, 2025 period 24 → 2026 period 20). Base 23.8 %. Archetypes
  J2 and J3, legitimacy loop off and on.
- Band (value in %, 2027-10 / 2028-10 / 2030-10):
  B1 30.8–34.5* / 36.7–42.9* / 45.2–52.8* ·
  B2 34.1–34.6 / 40.7–44.0 / 44.4–58.6 ·
  B3 33.6–34.4 / 37.5–42.8 / 36.2–53.5 ·
  B4 33.2–34.6 / 34.2–41.1 / 31.4–44.4
  (* some B1 runs cannot reach the observed growth rate at all)
- What separates the anchors: 2027 hardly does (all ~31–35 %). By 2030, B4
  predicts a plateau or decline (peak and backlash), B1–B2 continued growth.
  A value below ~31 % in 2027-10 is outside every anchor.
- Observations:
  - (none yet)
  - 2026-10-12 (checkpoint 0): 23.8 % (BTOS 2026 period 20) → base value of the prediction, not yet a test
  - 2026-10-13: 23.8 % (same period). Short-run growth 19.5 % (period 10) → 23.8 % (period 20) ≈ 1.7× annualized: no slowdown yet; nothing to separate B2 from B3 so far

### P-2026-002 — L2 enterprises using AI (EU27), reference years 2026, 2027, 2029
- Registered: 2026-10-13, model GADM-0.4, by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06
- Proxy mapping: Eurostat isoc_eb_ai share (10+ employees) ∝ K_Ω near t*;
  aligned to the observed one-year ratio 1.48 (13.48 → 19.95, 2024 → 2025).
  Base 19.95 %. Archetype J1, loop off and on.
- Band (value in %, 2026 / 2027 / 2029):
  B1 20.7 / 21.4–21.5 / 22.8–23.1* ·
  B2 25.4–27.4 / 30.4–34.1 / 39.5–45.3* ·
  B3 29.2–29.4 / 37.7–37.9 / 52.0–52.3 ·
  B4 29.3–29.5 / 39.4–39.6 / 60.6–60.7
  (* under J1 levers, B1 and B2 cannot reach the observed 2025 growth: the
  observed EU growth already argues against "J1 at B1–B2")
- Observations:
  - (none yet; the 2026 value is expected around mid-2027)

### P-2026-003 — L2 enterprises using AI (DE), reference years 2026, 2027, 2029
- Registered: 2026-10-13, model GADM-0.4, by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06
- Proxy mapping: as P-2026-002; observed one-year ratio 1.31 (19.75 → 25.97).
  Base 25.97 %. Archetype J1, loop off and on.
- Band (value in %, 2026 / 2027 / 2029):
  B1 26.9–27.0 / 27.9–28.0 / 29.7–30.1* ·
  B2 33.0–34.0 / 39.6–41.2 / 51.5–53.3* ·
  B3 33.8–33.9 / 40.8–41.0 / 52.1–53.0 ·
  B4 34.0 / 42.1–42.4 / 57.7–58.2
- Observations:
  - (none yet)

### P-2026-004 — L6 public sentiment toward AI (US, EU), direction to 2028
- Registered: 2026-10-13, model GADM-0.4, by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06
- Proxy mapping: sign only. Σ falling ↔ a rising share of "more concerned than
  excited" (Pew, US) or of negative views (Eurobarometer, EU). Magnitudes are
  not mapped (Σ is uncalibrated).
- Band (Δ Σ from now to 2028-10, loop on): US B1 −0.07 · B2 −0.12 · B3 −0.18 ·
  B4 −0.18 (loop off: 0). EU all anchors −0.01 … +0.03 (flat).
- Claim tested: the legitimacy loop of `models/AdoptionBand.md` § 3. If US
  sentiment improves clearly while adoption grows as in P-2026-001, the loop as
  specified is not supported; if it worsens, the loop is supported and the
  faster anchors gain weight. EU sentiment should move less than US sentiment.
- Observations:
  - (none yet; baseline values to be collected at the first review, L6 manual)
  - 2026-10-13 (baseline, review): US Σ 0.285 (Pew, June 2026: 52 % concerned, 9 % excited; 2021: Σ 0.405). EU Σ ≈ 0.60 (Eurobarometer, fieldwork 2024; different question). AR Σ ≈ 0.43 (La Nación Data, June 2026; secondary). Later observations are compared with these values

### Not registered in v1
- **L3 (AR):** no adoption base value (manual source missing), so no
  quantitative prediction. Qualitatively, the J2 path predicts the same
  pattern as the US: fast growth now, and falling sentiment by 2028.
- **L5 (US investment)** and level predictions: wait for calibration
  (ASSEMBLY-WP-0013).