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The pattern is now measured over three rounds: 5 fatal, then 3 (2 from the previous round's corrections), then 4 (3 from them). The corrections are not getting safer. FATAL 1: round 2's short-cell assertion went into regulation.rs only. attack-value.rs — which produced every number in CB-EV-0030's DARVO table — still just warned, and the gate registered to close the finding claimed the property for both. FATAL 2, the sharpest of the three rounds: counting games proves they STARTED. Stopping the engine after one round gives 200 games, all-zero columns and exit 0 — byte for byte the signature CB-EV-0030 says the instrumentation distinguishes from a real result. Both harnesses now require every counted game to have reached an outcome over five rounds. FATAL 3: round 2's `.csv` filter was applied to all three loops, so catalog.yaml and rules_delta.yaml — whose missing digests were round 1's finding — were recorded and then never compared, and never checked against upstream at all. Only the parser loop filters now. FATAL 4: five of six tiebreak comparators had no coverage. GR-E04's tiebreak never executes in any scenario. All four are now covered and mutation-verified; the Blame key needed compensating claims to be reachable at all, since Blame also lowers the coalition score. SERIOUS: "peak held" computed the same number as "peak assigned" for every possible input — the real gap was that START_STRESS was an unchecked constant, now read off the dealt state; cadence="none" was a pure loophole, removed; sibling discovery swapped a hand-written list for hand-written globs and missed metadata.json and VARIANT.md, both named in the package's own changed_files — now walked, and it found them immediately; and "~72,000 games" was unsourced, make panels runs 17,600. Also separated two kinds of number that were presented alike: seats×games is invariant, 363 and 29 vary 7.1%-11.5% across samples. Round 4 owed. The conclusion is not that the work is nearly right — it is that author-made corrections to measurement work should be assumed defective until a fresh reader has attacked them. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
212 lines
10 KiB
Markdown
212 lines
10 KiB
Markdown
# CB-EV-0031 — a seat that does not regulate
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CB-WP-0039. Tier M (adds a policy to the panel every future measurement is
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reported against; chaos d8 = 2 → no override). **Declaration 11 of chaos
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window 3.** Closed 2026-08-08.
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> **CORRECTED 2026-08-08 after adversarial review, and most of the
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> original file was wrong.** The review is in
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> [`CB-REV-0001`](../reviews/CB-REV-0001-h1.md). The policy this pass
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> called *"greedy with one preference changed"* differed in **five**
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> places — including `SpendFreedom`, which it ranked 95 unconditionally
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> where greedy ranks it 0 unless the gate bites, so the seat burned its
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> Freedom token in round one of every game. **Every number below was
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> measuring that bug.** They have been re-derived against a policy that
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> delegates to `GreedyPolicy::rank` and overrides exactly one arm.
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>
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> Sections 1 and 2 are rewritten. **Section 3 is withdrawn entirely.**
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**Delivered:** the `reactive` policy, and the measurement CB-EV-0030 §4
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named as the one it had not run.
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---
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## 1. It changes CB-EV-0030's verdict
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CB-EV-0030 concluded H1's DARVO arm rate was still 0. **That was true of
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the panel, and the panel was greedy-family throughout.**
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`GreedyPolicy` ranks `Action::Ground if gated => 100`: the instant the
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stress gate bites it grounds. Stress plateaus at 3, and the arm at 5 is
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unreachable **by construction**. So "H1 does nothing" was really "H1 does
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nothing *to a seat that already manages its Stress*" — and H1 was written
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for the seat that does not.
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`reactive` now **delegates to `GreedyPolicy::rank` and overrides one arm**
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(`Ground if gated`), so "one preference differs" is structurally true
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rather than a claim. SHARED GROUND, 200 games per cell, all 200 ran, and
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**`peak` is now Stress held, not Stress assigned** (§2):
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| | | greedy | | | | reactive | | |
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|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
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| **seats** | won | atk | darvo | peak | won | atk | darvo | peak |
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| 2p | 68 | 0 | 0 | 4 | **66** | 726 | 363 | **5** |
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| 3p | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1200 | 600 | **5** |
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| 4p | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1600 | 800 | **5** |
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| 6p | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2400 | 1200 | **5** |
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**H1's mechanism does reach the unregulated seat.** DARVO arms **exactly
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1 per seat per game** — 600/(200×3), 800/(200×4), 1200/(200×6) — and 0.91
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at 2p. The first correction said **2** per seat per game, which is wrong
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by a factor of two and was caught by round 2 (#3).
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**Criterion 3's verdict is corrected.** The original said reactive *"wins
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nothing, at any seat count"*. **False.** At 2p it wins **66 against
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greedy's 68** — indistinguishable. It wins nothing at 3p and above, which
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is also where greedy wins nothing.
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## 2. The baseline finding, which is larger than H1
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Look at the baseline half of the same run. Greedy and reactive are
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**identical** — 132/165/190/200, zero attacks, zero DARVO, in all four
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bands.
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**Peak Stress held across the 1,600 baseline games was 2 — the starting
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value, never exceeded.** Stress only ever went down.
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**Three corrections to what this section originally said.**
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1. It reported **1**, because `peak` was a maximum over `StressSet` event
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*payloads*. Starting Stress is written by `setup`, never by an event,
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so a table sitting at 2 all game reported 1 — and a table with no
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`StressSet` at all would have reported 0. **Wrong subject**: the metric
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answered *"highest value ever assigned"* while the prose claimed
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*"highest Stress reached"*.
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2. It said **3,200 baseline games**. The run is 3,200 *total*; the
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baseline half is **1,600**.
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3. It generalised to *"a policy built to be reckless with Stress plays
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identically to one built to husband it"*. **False, and refuted by this
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repo's own sibling harness**: `attack-value.rs`'s rank-95 policy is
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exactly that policy, and under **baseline** it drives Stress to 5 and
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arms DARVO 400–1000 times per cell.
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**What survives, stated narrowly.** Under both policies measured here —
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neither of which ever selects ATTACK under baseline — **no Stress is ever
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added at all**. The baseline's Stress economy is reachable only through
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ATTACK, so a table that does not attack never meets the gate, the arm, or
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the Freedom token. That is still a real observation about F17, and it is
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**about ATTACK being the sole inbound pressure**, not about the economy
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being unreachable in general.
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## 3. WITHDRAWN — "H1-B suppresses DARVO in the attacker"
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The original §3 argued that H1-B holds the attacker at Stress 4, below the
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arm, and pushes its targets to 5 — inferred from a constant `darvo = 400`
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and a final-Stress signature of `[5, 5, 4, 4, 4, 4]`.
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**Withdrawn on two independent grounds, both found by the review.**
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1. **The constant was the broken policy** — but a constant remains, and
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saying otherwise was wrong (round 2, #12). With the one-arm-override
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policy `darvo` is **exactly `seats × games`** at 3p and above. The
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constant moved from 400 to `n·games`; it did not dissolve, and whatever
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forces exactly one arm per seat per game is still unexplained.
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2. **Disabling H1-B changes the arm count by exactly zero**, in every
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cell, under the corrected policy. The effect attributed to H1-B's
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arithmetic was an interaction with the undeclared preference deltas.
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**And the inference was invalid even where the numbers held.** Final
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Stress does not record who armed: `DarvoEnded` resets the stage to `Off`
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and REVERSE applies −2 to its owner, so a seat can arm and finish below 5.
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The review demonstrated six seats arming behind the same `[5,5,4,4,4,4]`
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signature. **The original hedged the wrong variable** — it disclaimed "the
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number 2" and defended "the direction", and the direction is the part that
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failed.
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## 4. What this does not say
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- **`reactive` is not a good player and is not meant to be.** It wins
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nothing under H1 and exactly what greedy wins under baseline. It is an
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instrument for reaching the Stress economy, not a claim about how people
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play.
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- **Two policies is still not a panel.** RetrospectiveAnalysis §4.1 asks
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for greedy, random and first-legal at minimum; this pass added a fourth
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axis to two of them, in one mode.
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- **SHARED GROUND only.** CB-EV-0030 covered three modes; this covers one.
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- **No felt-play**, and this is the kind of claim — about pressure, and
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when a player feels cornered — that a human table answers and 3,200
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simulated games do not.
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## 5. The three items the review left open, now closed
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**H1-B on the DARVO extra Attack** — the delta says the extra Attack
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shares the Attack resolution *"so it can self-soothe too if Stress ≥ 4"*.
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CB-WP-0038 asserted it because the code shares `resolve_attack`; nothing
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tested it, and the withdrawn §3 ran straight through this path.
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`h1b_soothes_the_darvo_stage_attack_too` now covers it, mutation-verified.
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**Round-5 pressure did not reach the score.** `end_round_events` scored
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from `self` while H1-A's pressure went into `work`, and `score` reads
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Stress for the GR-E03 and GR-E04 tiebreaks. Fixed, and the test uses the
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case that actually bites: uniform pressure preserves an ordering, so it
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takes the **clamp** at 5 to collapse a gap and change who wins.
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**Its impact was claimed and never measured, and the measurement is
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zero** (round 2, #5). This file said the pressure was invisible to *"the
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two modes CB-EV-0030 reports on"* without checking. Reverting the fix
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leaves `attack-value`'s output **byte-identical across all 24 cells and
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all three modes**, including the two whose `won` column reads through the
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tiebreak. **The defect is real in principle and its only witness is a
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hand-constructed board.**
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**The sample size quoted here was "~72,000 games" and was not
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derivable from anything in this repo** (round 3, #9). `make panels` runs
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**17,600**: `attack-value` is 2 variants × 3 modes × 3 policies × 4 seat
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counts × 200 = 14,400, and `regulation` is 2 × 4 × 2 × 200 = 3,200. The
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figure was adopted from a reviewer's message and never re-derived — in
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the file whose whole correction history is about exactly that.
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**Inert arms, and a second wrong-subject error caught on the way.** A
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DARVO arm at the End of Round 5 can never advance a stage — `GameEnded`
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follows immediately — and ground-game's criterion 1 is about DARVO
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*mattering*. Now reported separately:
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| seats | arms | of which inert |
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| 2p | 363 | **29** (8%) |
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| 3p | 600 | 0 |
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| 4p | 800 | 0 |
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| 6p | 1200 | 0 |
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**Two kinds of number are in that table and this file did not distinguish
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them** (round 3, #10). `600 / 800 / 1200` is **exactly `seats × games`**
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and holds on every sample tried. `363` and `29` are **sample-specific**:
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across four disjoint windows the 2p arms run 354–366 and the inert share
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runs **7.1%–11.5%**. So "92% of arms at 2p are live" is a fact about seeds
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`0..200`, not about the game — it reads 88.5% elsewhere.
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The same applies to the baseline win counts quoted throughout
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(`132/165/190/200`): the *identity* of greedy and reactive under baseline
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holds on every sample, the **digits do not**.
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**The first version of that metric was wrong and equalled `darvo` in
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every cell**, because it tested `g.rounds >= 5` — a property of the
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*game*, not of the *event*. Every arm in every completed game was marked
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inert, which briefly looked like "criterion 1 is not met after all". An
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arm is inert when no `RoundEnded` follows it.
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**The 29-of-363 citation has now been wrong twice and is stated plainly
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here.** Round 2 found it credited to `CB-REV-0001`, which did not contain
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the figure; round 1's reviewer *had* reported it, in its message only.
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Round 3 found the remaining problem (#10, #11): both "independent
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confirmations" used **seeds 0..200**, so what was confirmed twice is the
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**definition**, not the figure — and whether round 1's `StrictReactive`
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was the corrected one-arm policy or the five-difference one **cannot be
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determined from anything in this repo**, because that reviewer's code was
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never kept. Treat 29/363 as one sample of a quantity that varies.
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**Criterion 1 stands as met**: 92% of arms at 2p and all of them above are
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live.
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**`regulation.rs` no longer skips setup failures silently.** They are
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counted, and a short cell now **fails an assertion** rather than printing
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a number a reader has to notice — which is what CB-EV-0030 §3 claimed
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credit for and only half did.
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## 6. Open
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- **The baseline's Stress economy being unreachable (§2) deserves its own
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finding**, and is not raised here because it wants the plural panel of
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§4 first. It is the more consequential of the two results in this file.
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- **Whether H1-B's suppression is intended** is ground-game's question,
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and it is the sharpest thing this pass can hand them.
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