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CB-WP-0025 T06/T07: a difficulty baseline that reports its own confound
T06. games/ground/examples/difficulty.rs, make difficulty, wired into make
self-tests, and a report file in ground-game under GROUND-WP-0005 with a
hub message pointing at it.

THE REPORT OPENS WITH THE RETRACTION, because what this task was written
to send was withdrawn by T02 and GROUND-WP-0005 is blocked on exactly that
number. They are told, in the first section, that we nearly sent them "the
game is too easy at 5-6 seats" and why it was wrong.

  seats  winnable  greedy  random  first-legal  spread
   2p      60%     60.0%    5.0%      76.7%      71.7
   3p      93%     88.3%    6.7%      25.0%      81.7
   4p     100%     93.3%    6.7%      30.0%      86.7
   5p     100%    100.0%    3.3%       0.0%     100.0
   6p     100%    100.0%    3.3%       0.0%     100.0

SPREAD justifies the whole redesign: 71.7 to 100.0 points between three
trivial policies. The table now shows why no single rate is a difficulty
rather than asserting it.

And the 5-6 rows point the OPPOSITE way from the withdrawn claim --
first-legal 0% against greedy 100% is the widest spread in the table,
which suggests play matters MORE there, not less. Neither reading is
established and the report says so.

The confound is stated in the tool's own output, not only in prose:
`winnable` is conditioned on greedy's play up to the final round, because
searching from round 1 is unaffordable. Presenting it as a property of the
deal would repeat this pass's error in a subtler form -- which is exactly
how a corrected project reintroduces a defect. NO THRESHOLD CHANGES ARE
PROPOSED.

The instrument can fail (spec §5): a witness must replay to a win, an
unwinnable position must report searched-out rather than a budget cut, a
one-node budget must not claim exhaustion, and the policy panel must
actually disagree. difficulty-baseline.rs marked superseded, kept as the
survey's dated snapshot. Registered as F16, inconsistent / withdrawn.

T07. evidence/CB-EV-0024. Five of nine defects came only from the review;
four from execution, and all four of those were in work written after it.
The wrong-denominator family now has five instances and still no control
-- facts-check catches copies that disagree, nothing catches a number
computed correctly against the wrong base. Tier L was an over-declaration
(no port, structurally M) and paid for itself anyway, because the review
is L-only. Chaos window 2 will close with zero overrides, making its
retirement condition untestable.

Named as open rather than implied done: the witness is NOT wired to the
ending page. The search works; the browser cannot ask it yet.

make all: exit 0. loop-lint clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-05 19:24:49 +02:00
..
CB-WP-0001-inner-loop.md CB-WP-0007 T01+T03: window the metric, budget it, cap meta at 25% 2026-08-01 14:12:07 +02:00
CB-WP-0002-cost-accounting.md CB-WP-0007 T01+T03: window the metric, budget it, cap meta at 25% 2026-08-01 14:12:07 +02:00
CB-WP-0003-loop-hardening.md CB-WP-0007 T01+T03: window the metric, budget it, cap meta at 25% 2026-08-01 14:12:07 +02:00
CB-WP-0004-mechanical-work.md CB-WP-0007 T01+T03: window the metric, budget it, cap meta at 25% 2026-08-01 14:12:07 +02:00
CB-WP-0005-assertion-coverage.md CB-WP-0007 T01+T03: window the metric, budget it, cap meta at 25% 2026-08-01 14:12:07 +02:00
CB-WP-0006-instrument-the-table.md CB-WP-0007 T01+T03: window the metric, budget it, cap meta at 25% 2026-08-01 14:12:07 +02:00
CB-WP-0007-session-shape.md CB-WP-0010-T01: close CB-WP-0007 2026-08-02 02:15:08 +02:00
CB-WP-0008-ship-stage-0.md CB-WP-0008-T04: CB-EV-0007 — stage 0 is shipped, and the spend curve is a V 2026-08-01 15:25:19 +02:00
CB-WP-0009-adaptive-gates.md CB-WP-0009-T04: CB-EV-0008 — the gate changes, measured 2026-08-01 15:45:08 +02:00
CB-WP-0010-consolidation.md CB-WP-0010-T03: record CommitWindow's second failed second-use 2026-08-02 02:19:23 +02:00
CB-WP-0011-inspectable-table.md CB-WP-0011-T03: evidence — the chaos roll fired, and it was right 2026-08-02 02:48:51 +02:00
CB-WP-0012-render-port.md Sync hub IDs and work-record index for CB-WP-0012 2026-08-02 04:30:45 +02:00
CB-WP-0013-instrument-corrections.md Sync hub IDs and work-record index for CB-WP-0013 2026-08-02 07:32:33 +02:00
CB-WP-0014-execute-the-javascript.md Sync hub IDs and work-record index for CB-WP-0014 2026-08-02 07:59:28 +02:00
CB-WP-0015-the-inert-clauses.md Sync hub IDs and work-record index for CB-WP-0015 2026-08-02 14:08:30 +02:00
CB-WP-0016-the-drop-target.md Sync hub IDs and work-record index for CB-WP-0016 2026-08-02 20:49:21 +02:00
CB-WP-0017-legible-interaction.md Sync hub IDs and work-record index for CB-WP-0017 2026-08-02 22:43:40 +02:00
CB-WP-0018-the-browser-is-a-client.md Sync hub IDs and work-record index for CB-WP-0018 2026-08-03 02:24:57 +02:00
CB-WP-0019-the-am4-family.md CB-WP-0019 T03/T04: the cost rule written down, and the lifecycle 2026-08-03 19:25:18 +02:00
CB-WP-0020-the-table-you-can-read.md Sync hub state for CB-WP-0020 2026-08-03 20:21:18 +02:00
CB-WP-0021-import-the-edition.md CB-WP-0021 T04: evidence -- the endings are tight, and the cost chain snapped 2026-08-05 15:56:31 +02:00
CB-WP-0022-the-design-instrument.md CB-WP-0022 T05/T06/T07: the register, and what its first run found 2026-08-05 15:22:33 +02:00
CB-WP-0023-solve-legality.md CB-EV-0020: a gate moved the rule, and the report was wrong 2026-08-04 00:21:21 +02:00
CB-WP-0024-the-table-you-can-watch.md CB-WP-0024: the table you can watch 2026-08-05 17:32:48 +02:00
CB-WP-0025-could-we-have-won.md CB-WP-0025 T06/T07: a difficulty baseline that reports its own confound 2026-08-05 19:24:49 +02:00
CB-WP-0026-collect-the-rulings.md Sync hub state for CB-WP-0026 2026-08-05 16:15:22 +02:00