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intelligence-radar/digests/daily/2026-09-13.md
tegwick d0e6438609 Integrate founding explorations and bootstrap operational radar 
Assistant: codex
Assistant-Model: gpt-6-astra
Assistant-Session: 01a09c77-b1a9-7eb3-b501-6cb24b458c97
2026-09-13 22:42:09 +02:00

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Imported exploration, 2026-09-13. Source claims have not been independently verified by this repository. See integration review.

Daily brief — 13 September 2026

Standing-up day. This brief is the first radar sweep, not a full 40-minute harvest of every primary.

Frontier and markets

  • GPT-6 Astra (OpenAI, 3 Sep) remains the week’s gravitational event. OpenAI frames it as a generational step for computer use and has used “Critical” cybersecurity language under its preparedness framework. Independent boards after Artificial Analysis v4.3 put Astra in a tie with Claude Fable 5.1 on the Intelligence Index (53) at materially lower reported cost-per-index-task. ARC-AGI-3 headlines (99.9% with a provider adapter vs ~63% on the ARC Prize harness in public write-ups) are a measurement scandal and a capability signal at once.
  • Claude Fable 5.1 (1 Sep) is generally available; Mythos 5.1 is a restricted sibling with safeguards lifted for verified programs. Cache-read pricing cut is an economics event, not only a model event.
  • Gemini 3.8 Flash GA (2 Sep). Gemini 3.5 Pro still not generally shipped — availability gap.
  • Grok 4.7 still not shipped as of tonight; Grok 4.6 (12 Aug) remains xAI’s current flagship. Musk comments last week pointed at RL length-penalty issues.
  • DeepSeek V4.1 Flash and Cognition SWE-2 (10 Sep) compress the coding-agent cost curve: near-frontier coding at a discount.
  • Capacity: mid-September reporting that OpenAI paused some ChatGPT Pro signups/upgrades. Treat availability as a first-class ledger field.

Science of intelligence

  • Daedalus 2026 intelligence essays remain the best current bridge texts: Tenenbaum (language + probabilistic programs), Ganguli (physics + neuroscience + AI as one science).
  • NeuroAI: Wang’s “foundational brain model of intelligence” program (PFC-centric, multi-task recurrent circuits) and Pathway’s BDH latent-space reasoning architecture (cost-efficiency claim on ARC-AGI-1) are the two architectural stories worth tracking beside transformers.
  • In-silico cognitive science: AutoCog-on-Centaur work circulating this month argues theories discovered on behavioral foundation models can generalize to humans. Watch replication, not the press title.

Engineering

  • Agent evals, not chat evals, are the ruler: Terminal-Bench 4.0, OSWorld 2.0, AutomationBench-AA, SWE-Pro / DeepSWE / Frontier Code.
  • Index rebases (AA v4.2 on 4 Sep, v4.3 on 7 Sep) rewrote last week’s rank story. Never quote an Intelligence Index number without the version.

Political / legal / social

  • US congressional leadership publicly agrees risks are rising and that there is no quick statute. Track actual text, not Sunday shows.
  • Amodei slowdown essay and Anthropic distillation accusations toward some Chinese labs are both policy objects. Treat accusations as claims until evidence is public.
  • OpenAI IPO timing chatter is not a capability event.

Ledger actions

  1. Freeze Task Router recipes onto AA v4.3 + work-sample evals.
  2. Tag Astra and Fable 5.1 as joint general Frontier until a task-specific eval breaks the tie.
  3. Add DeepSeek V4.1 Flash and SWE-2 to the Budget / Efficient watch for coding tasks.
  4. Do not list Grok 4.7.

Sources to re-open tomorrow

Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3 article; Epoch benchmark hub; OpenAI Astra card; Anthropic Fable 5.1 card; ARC Prize Astra measurement notes; lab pricing pages.