tegwick
d0e6438609
Assistant: codex Assistant-Model: gpt-6-astra Assistant-Session: 01a09c77-b1a9-7eb3-b501-6cb24b458c97
42 lines
3.4 KiB
Markdown
42 lines
3.4 KiB
Markdown
> Imported exploration, 2026-09-13. Source claims have not been independently verified by this repository. See [integration review](../../docs/integration-review.md).
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# Daily brief — 13 September 2026
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Standing-up day. This brief is the first radar sweep, not a full 40-minute harvest of every primary.
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## Frontier and markets
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- **GPT-6 Astra** (OpenAI, 3 Sep) remains the week’s gravitational event. OpenAI frames it as a generational step for computer use and has used “Critical” cybersecurity language under its preparedness framework. Independent boards after Artificial Analysis v4.3 put Astra in a **tie with Claude Fable 5.1** on the Intelligence Index (53) at materially lower reported cost-per-index-task. ARC-AGI-3 headlines (99.9% with a provider adapter vs ~63% on the ARC Prize harness in public write-ups) are a measurement scandal and a capability signal at once.
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- **Claude Fable 5.1** (1 Sep) is generally available; **Mythos 5.1** is a restricted sibling with safeguards lifted for verified programs. Cache-read pricing cut is an economics event, not only a model event.
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- **Gemini 3.8 Flash** GA (2 Sep). **Gemini 3.5 Pro** still not generally shipped — availability gap.
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- **Grok 4.7** still not shipped as of tonight; **Grok 4.6** (12 Aug) remains xAI’s current flagship. Musk comments last week pointed at RL length-penalty issues.
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- **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** and **Cognition SWE-2** (10 Sep) compress the coding-agent cost curve: near-frontier coding at a discount.
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- Capacity: mid-September reporting that OpenAI paused some ChatGPT Pro signups/upgrades. Treat **availability as a first-class ledger field**.
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## Science of intelligence
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- Daedalus 2026 intelligence essays remain the best current bridge texts: Tenenbaum (language + probabilistic programs), Ganguli (physics + neuroscience + AI as one science).
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- NeuroAI: Wang’s “foundational brain model of intelligence” program (PFC-centric, multi-task recurrent circuits) and Pathway’s BDH latent-space reasoning architecture (cost-efficiency claim on ARC-AGI-1) are the two architectural stories worth tracking beside transformers.
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- In-silico cognitive science: AutoCog-on-Centaur work circulating this month argues theories discovered on behavioral foundation models can generalize to humans. Watch replication, not the press title.
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## Engineering
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- Agent evals, not chat evals, are the ruler: Terminal-Bench 4.0, OSWorld 2.0, AutomationBench-AA, SWE-Pro / DeepSWE / Frontier Code.
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- Index rebases (AA v4.2 on 4 Sep, v4.3 on 7 Sep) rewrote last week’s rank story. Never quote an Intelligence Index number without the version.
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## Political / legal / social
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- US congressional leadership publicly agrees risks are rising and that there is no quick statute. Track actual text, not Sunday shows.
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- Amodei slowdown essay and Anthropic distillation accusations toward some Chinese labs are both policy objects. Treat accusations as claims until evidence is public.
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- OpenAI IPO timing chatter is not a capability event.
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## Ledger actions
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1. Freeze Task Router recipes onto **AA v4.3 + work-sample evals**.
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2. Tag Astra and Fable 5.1 as joint general Frontier until a task-specific eval breaks the tie.
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3. Add DeepSeek V4.1 Flash and SWE-2 to the Budget / Efficient watch for coding tasks.
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4. Do not list Grok 4.7.
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## Sources to re-open tomorrow
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Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3 article; Epoch benchmark hub; OpenAI Astra card; Anthropic Fable 5.1 card; ARC Prize Astra measurement notes; lab pricing pages.
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