tegwick
660761fc71
Maintainer (Bernd) accepted 2026-07-30: estimated_effort_days/daily_rate driven directly by commit-clustered human interaction time; approved_direct_costs from real metered AI token cost (get_token_summary); workplan/task-volume and file/line-size metrics serve only as a sanity check on the human-time estimate, never their own dollar figure; Target Multiple remains a human classification. Candidate B recorded as the considered, not-adopted alternative.
127 lines
5.3 KiB
Markdown
127 lines
5.3 KiB
Markdown
---
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id: TREV-WP-0010
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type: workplan
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title: "Development Effort Calculator"
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domain: infotech
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repo: target-revenue
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status: active
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owner: claude
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topic_slug: infotech
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created: "2026-07-30"
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updated: "2026-07-30"
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state_hub_workstream_id: "2cabf156-dbdf-4e46-a213-fb76800702df"
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---
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# Development Effort Calculator
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Turns measurable repo activity (human interaction time, workplan/task
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volume, file/line complexity, AI token cost) into `target_basis` values
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(`specs/PhaseManifestSpecification.md`), which combined with a human
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Target Multiple classification (10x/100x/1000x) produces a proposed
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Initial Target via the framework's own existing formula
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(`specs/TargetRevenueFrameworkCore.md` §1.4) — **not a new formula**. This
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calculator is a value-input tool feeding that existing formula, not a
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competing valuation methodology.
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**Split from the former combined `TREV-WP-0009-control-plane-and-effort-calculator.md`
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(2026-07-30)** — this deliverable has its own formula decision and
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implementation arc, independent of the Target Revenue Control Plane
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(`workplans/TREV-WP-0009-target-revenue-control-plane.md`), even though
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the Control Plane's Phase-registration flow is expected to consume this
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calculator's output once both exist.
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**Does not include:** declaring any real Phase for any repo, or choosing
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a repo's Target Multiple classification unilaterally — per
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`specs/DevelopmentEffortCalculatorConcept.md` §4, that classification
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remains a human judgment call the calculator can inform but not make.
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Concept: `specs/DevelopmentEffortCalculatorConcept.md`.
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## Formula decision (human gate)
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```task
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id: TREV-WP-0010-T01
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status: done
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priority: high
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human_accept_required: true
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human_accepted_by: Bernd
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human_accepted_at: "2026-07-30"
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state_hub_task_id: "a3e1acbf-8659-4745-b595-ba8c2728f3b5"
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```
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`specs/DevelopmentEffortCalculatorConcept.md` §3 presents two combination
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strategies without choosing between them:
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- **Candidate A (labor-cost-anchored, recommended v0 default)** — human
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time drives `estimated_effort_days`/`daily_rate` directly; AI token
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cost becomes `approved_direct_costs` (a real, metered direct cost);
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workplan/task-volume and repo-size metrics are a sanity check/adjustment
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on the human-time estimate, not a separate dollar figure.
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- **Candidate B (composite-index-anchored)** — all four metric families
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scored into one weighted complexity index, converted to dollars via a
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declared $-per-unit rate.
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Confirm one as the adopted v0 approach (or propose a refinement), per the
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same human-gate pattern already used for the degeneration policy formula
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(`workplans/TREV-WP-0007-degeneration-policy-and-canonical-profiles.md` T02).
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Agents may prepare a recommendation and leave this `todo`.
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**Accepted 2026-07-30 by the maintainer (Bernd): Candidate A
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(labor-cost-anchored) confirmed as the adopted v0 formula.**
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`estimated_effort_days` and `daily_rate` are driven directly by
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commit-clustered human interaction time; AI token cost
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(`get_token_summary`) becomes `approved_direct_costs`; workplan/task-
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volume and file/line-size metrics serve only as a sanity check/adjustment
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on the human-time estimate, never their own dollar figure; the Target
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Multiple remains a human classification, not computed. T02 implements
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this formula, not Candidate B or a hybrid.
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## Implement the calculator
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```task
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id: TREV-WP-0010-T02
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status: todo
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priority: high
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state_hub_task_id: "b5fb46ea-b737-495f-82b8-5e10f0032cb5"
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```
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Using T01's confirmed formula, implement data collection for each metric
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family and the combination formula itself, producing `target_basis`
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field values ready to drop into a Phase Manifest:
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- **Human interaction time** — v0 default: commit-timestamp clustering
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(session-gap grouping over git history), explicitly a floor estimate,
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not a true count (concept §2a).
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- **Workplan/task volume** — counts via state hub `list_tasks`/
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`list_workplans` scoped to the repo, or direct `workplans/` directory
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inspection where hub coverage is thin (concept §2b).
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- **File/line complexity** — raw counts with generated/vendored-path
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exclusion (concept §2c's flagged distortion: dependency trees,
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lockfiles, and generated files must not inflate this signal).
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- **AI token cost** — `get_token_summary(scope="repo", id=...)`, the
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strongest, least speculative input since it is a real metered cost, not
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a proxy (concept §2d).
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Output must show its work (which inputs produced which numbers) — a
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black-box dollar figure with no visible derivation would undermine the
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"transparent, non-gameable" goal (`specs/TargetRevenueLicenseConcept.md`
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§4.6) this whole framework is built around.
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## Apply calculator to real candidate repos
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```task
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id: TREV-WP-0010-T03
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status: todo
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priority: medium
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state_hub_task_id: "74a3db97-1b66-4514-895a-bb9c385008aa"
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```
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Once T02 is implemented, run it against the real candidates already
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identified (`specs/PilotPhaseCandidateSurvey.md`: `net-kingdom`'s
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`NK-WP-0002`, `railiance-apps`'s `vergabe-teilnahme`, and
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`info-tech-canon`'s service surface) to produce **proposed**,
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calculator-derived `target_basis` values, replacing the hand-picked
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illustrative figures currently in `examples/pilot-candidates/*/manifest.json`.
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This remains draft/non-binding — updating a draft manifest's numbers is
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not a Phase declaration, and does not touch
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`workplans/TREV-WP-0008-governance-and-pilot-rollout.md` T05's own gate.
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