test-driver/research/hypotheses/H-005-verification-energy.md
tegwick bec7fdc465 T03: research control plane
H-001..H-005 with explicit falsification conditions, E-001..E-003, the
Concept-Implementation Fitness Map, findings log and ID convention. Plain
files, no tooling.

- fitness map corrects Improvement Loop section 13 levels downward: nothing
  exceeds C1 without implementation
- H-005 (Energy) dormant by decision - events captured, no scoring written
- H-001 gets a genuine control arm so the semantic-action thesis is not
  trivially true
- E-003 added: deliberately attacks the safety boundary rather than only
  sampling benign cases

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1629012@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: 78d4fb13-8a1e-474b-87a3-9b9261c49a39
2026-08-22 23:11:21 +02:00

40 lines
1.3 KiB
Markdown

---
id: H-005
title: Verification Energy
status: PROPOSED
created: "2026-08-22"
experiments: []
concepts: [C-energy]
---
# H-005 — Verification Energy
## Claim
Historical evidence about defects caught, adaptations required, false positives
and duplication can identify verification assets whose continued execution is
more valuable than others.
## Falsification condition
Energy scores computed from event history fail to rank assets better than a
trivial baseline (e.g. recency, or uniform priority) when predicting which assets
subsequently catch a defect.
## Why no experiment is planned yet
**This hypothesis is not testable at the current scale and is deliberately
dormant.** Validating it requires event history across many assets over months —
history the spike will not accumulate. Implementing a scoring function now would
produce a number that cannot be checked, which is worse than no number.
`TD-WP-0002` therefore records **raw immutable `EnergyEvent`s from the first run**
and implements no scoring, decay, or selection logic. Events cannot be
reconstructed later; scores can always be computed later.
This is the hypothesis most likely to be **cheaply built and never validated**,
which is precisely why it is fenced off.
## Status log
- 2026-08-22 `PROPOSED`, dormant by decision. Event capture only.