assembly-economics/checkpoints/predictions.md
tegwick 72feabf573 ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T02 (part): checkpoint protocol, playbook, schedule, catalog v0.1, register; activity definitions
- checkpoints/: schedule (phase windows, authoritative), README protocol,
  PLAYBOOK for the executing agent, IndicatorCatalog v0.1 (light + full),
  append-only predictions register
- activity-definitions/: setup-daily (13-15 Oct 2026), monthly-2026,
  quarterly, annual; agent-session label routes to rein-aharness

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
2026-10-12 18:21:55 +02:00

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Markdown

# Prediction register (append-only)
Pre-registered predictions from the current model version, and the
observations recorded against them at later checkpoints. **Never edit or
delete an entry.** Revised predictions are added as new entries that
reference the entry they supersede.
The first substantive predictions (band ranges per anchor for catalog
indicators) are written by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06. Until then, checkpoints
record observations only.
## Entry format
```markdown
### P-YYYY-NNN — <indicator> (<jurisdiction>), horizon <date>
- Registered: <date>, model <version>, by <workplan task>
- Proxy mapping: <how the model quantity maps onto the indicator>
- Band: B1 <range> · B2 <range> · B3 <range> · B4 <range>
- Observations:
- <checkpoint date>: <value> (<source>) → <band position>
```
## Entries
(none yet)