binky-control/finance/CostRunRate.md
tegwick 0144ca8131 finance: record railiance01 VM upgrade in cost base
4 vCPU / 16 GB at 25,19 EUR/mo, 24-month commitment (~604,56 EUR total,
to ~2028-07). Documented run-rate floor now ~100 EUR/mo. Added note that
this table feeds adaptive-pricing's allocated_fixed_cost (cost floor) —
adaptive-pricing consumes cost data, it does not capture it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-16 14:19:30 +02:00

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# Cost & Run-Rate Table
> Status: v1 — 2026-07-16 (BINKY-WP-0003-T03, AWQ-004). Feeds the cash/runway
> view (Finance Steward loop). Confidence per row; amounts marked **TBC**
> need Qonto statements (OH-2026-003) or founder confirmation. Currency EUR
> unless noted.
## Recurring costs
| # | Item | Provider | Monthly (gross) | Paid from | Confidence / source |
|---|------|----------|----------------:|-----------|---------------------|
| 1 | Fixed desk, HUB31 Darmstadt | Technologie- u. Gründerzentrum Verwaltungs-GmbH | **TBC** | Qonto | Contract since 2019-04-01, renewed to **2027-04-01** (signed annex 2026-03-23); rent amount not in the annex — pull from Qonto |
| 2 | DATEV / IT pass-through | FSW (old StB) | ~40,31 (483,69/yr) | Qonto | Documented: invoice 2026/651 for JanDec 2025. Continues only while DUO runs via FSW (RISK-007) |
| 3 | StB fees (JA, filings) | FSW → Bohle-Horsmann (pending) | **TBC** (annual, not monthly) | Qonto | Mandate transition open (RISK-006); budget once new mandate quotes |
| 4 | Qonto account | Qonto | **TBC** (founder: "expensive for usage") | Qonto | Plan review queued OH-2026-003; changes Red lane |
| 5 | bubble.io Starter Web Plan (app "coulomb") | Bubble Group Inc. | $32 | **founder private card** ⚠️ | Documented: invoice 2026-03-9049150, billed to private gmail/card |
| 6 | AI subscriptions | various | **TBC** | **founder private** ⚠️ | Founder note 2026-03-24: paid privately, not itemized yet |
| 7 | Domain(s): binky-hedgehog.com (+ inventory pending) | **TBC** | **TBC** (~13/mo typical) | **TBC** | AWQ-003 domain inventory will enumerate registrar + payer |
| 8 | Stripe | Stripe | usage-based fees only | n/a | No fixed fee; per-transaction. One live subscription flows in |
| 9 | railiance01 VM (4 vCPU / 16 GB RAM) | **TBC** (hosting provider) | 25,19 | **TBC** | Founder-stated 2026-07-16: upgraded to this size at 25,19 €/mo with **24-month commitment** (≈604,56 € total obligation, runs to ~2028-07). Provider + payment source to confirm. Other infra (workstation is private) — none known |
## Known recurring income
| Item | Counterparty | Amount | Notes |
|------|--------------|-------:|-------|
| Meeting-room sublet share | Binect | 450 € per event (25% × 2 days × 900 €) | Founder note 2026-03-02; invoice still to be issued ("endlich abrechnen") — **open receivable** |
| Stripe subscription | own/self | ~monthly sub price TBC | Proves pipeline since ~2025 |
## Findings
1. **Private/company bleed (⚠️ rows 56):** bubble.io and AI subscriptions
are company-purpose costs on private payment — cash-flow invisible to the
company and messy for the JA. Action: move to Qonto card or set up proper
Auslagenerstattung — needs StB advice → added to OH-2026-001 agenda.
2. **Liquidity is thin:** founder note 2026-03-24 records a month where DUO
pass-through + desk rent were not covered by the Qonto balance. Until a
runway view exists, treat every new recurring cost as a Yellow decision.
3. **Open receivable:** the 450 € Binect meeting-room billing was still
unissued as of March — verify status, else invoice (founder/Orange).
4. **Biggest unknowns** are the desk rent and Qonto plan — both fall out of
one Qonto statement pull (OH-2026-003, already queued).
5. **railiance01 commitment (2026-07-16):** the 24-month term makes this the
first multi-year obligation besides the desk — it belongs in the
contracts/obligations inventory (CompanyReactivationPlan.md). If it runs
over a private card like bubble.io, it joins the finding-1 cleanup.
## Feeding adaptive-pricing (cost floor)
This table is the source for the `allocated_fixed_cost` input of
adaptive-pricing's boundary engine (cost-floor price boundary,
`adaptive_pricing_core/boundary_engine.py`). adaptive-pricing does not
capture costs itself — when its Coulomb pricing project needs a cost floor,
derive it from the run-rate here (railiance01 hosting is a direct
infrastructure component of that floor).
## Estimated run-rate (floor)
Documented + typical minimums only: DATEV ~40 + bubble ~30 + railiance01
~25 + domains ~2 ≈ **~100 €/mo**, **plus** desk rent (likely the dominant
cost, low hundreds) **plus** Qonto plan **plus** annual StB fees. A defensible total needs the
Qonto pull; target: replace this paragraph with a verified figure after the
next command day.
## Maintenance
Update on: any new subscription, mandate quote, Qonto statement pull, or JA.
Owner: Finance Steward loop (rhythm session may update rows; adding new
recurring spend is never below Yellow lane).