Scope cut first, on the maintainer's decision after a spend review: the
project is 38% product / 62% loop-meta, cost per response is 2.9x worse
than its best window, and INTENT stage 0 still lacks a CLI player and
bots. CB-WP-0005 and CB-WP-0006 cost ~$74 — 31% of all spend — for zero
measured efficiency gain. T02 and T04 are cancelled unstarted.
T01: SH-1/SH-2/SH-3 now report over the window since the last commit, and
the cumulative figure is retained but labelled "history, NOT the metric".
The prediction held decisively — window 655,744 mean context against
cumulative 255,307, a 2.6x gap against a 20% refutation threshold. A
cumulative mean over 1,094 responses cannot detect a worsening trend
because the history outvotes the present.
T03: `make shape-budget`, modelled on CB-01/CB-02. Soft thresholds are the
existing SessionShape targets; hard is 1.5x, set before the next
measurement per §Step 4. Deliberately not in `make all` — failing the
build on context would block committing, and committing is what closes the
attribution window and is the natural point to compact, so a gate that
blocks the remedy is a trap. It fires HARD on its first run: 656,574
against a 300,000 ceiling.
InnerLoop v1.5 establishes the soft 25% meta budget. Workplans declare
kind: product|meta|mixed and `make status` reports the share; mixed splits
50/50 and says so. Soft on purpose — a task already started may be
finished, because stopping mid-task to satisfy a ratio wastes the work.
What it forbids is opening new meta work above the line. A pass that
exceeds it must say so in its evidence and name the product work
displaced.
First reading: 68% OVER, of $74.22 attributed. Product reads $0.00 because
the only product workplan, CB-WP-0001, predates qualified task ids and its
bare T## labels collide across passes — stated in the output rather than
papered over.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Answers the question the workplan posed: did v1.0's "every metric names
its instrument" rule stop a metric being written without a working
instrument? No. AC-1 named `cb-cost --pin` before that tool existed and
set a hand-computed target of $92.87; the tool returned $93.32. The rule
was satisfied completely and the metric was still wrong.
v1.1 adds:
- the instrument must exist and the target must come out of it;
targets are provisional until the tool emits them
- a number inherited from earlier work is re-derived before use as a
target, or cited as unverified
- every reporting tool exposes --self-test, run before the number
- cost is in the definition of done; M-D2-CST may not be uncomputable
The cost of CB-WP-0001 was stated four times before it was right --
$248.46, $92.21, $92.87, $93.32 -- and each correction came from a
different mechanism: re-derivation, adversarial review, and the positive
control. None found more than one. That is the case for keeping all
three.
CB-WP-0003 T10 predicted the next error would be harness-does-nothing.
It was not, twice. Trusted arithmetic over real data would pass a
positive control; and a property verified on 206/206 groups of the main
transcript is false in the 8-response subagent tree that neither the
survey nor the reviewer examined separately. Review structurally cannot
catch the second -- re-deriving on the same sample reproduces the same
blind spot.
Workplan status: done.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- InnerLoop definition-of-done gains a cost row: M-D2-CST may no longer
be recorded uncomputable, and composition must be reported, not only a
total.
- InnerLoop Step 5 gains the --self-test contract: every tool that
reports a number exposes one, and it runs before the number does.
Rationale attached, because the case that motivated it is the one
review cannot catch — survey and reviewer both verified the same large
sample and both missed the small one.
- make cost / cost-test / cost-pin on the one command surface; cost-test
in `make all` and in CI.
- Hub now holds the measured figure for CB-WP-0001: 80.6M in / 323.6k
out against the 401,100 it previously estimated, low by ~200x. The
event states plainly that the hub schema cannot represent the 88% of
cost that is cache, and names `make cost-pin` as the authority.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
AC-1 $93.32 ($92.21 main + $1.11 subagent), residual $0.000000. No
unmeasured rows. Composition: 88.0% cache, 11.9% output, 249:1 context
re-read to text written.
The question that could not be answered before: what /compact costs.
The transcript records it directly — 542,991 -> 19,974 tokens, a 27x
reduction. Cost per turn fell from $0.457 (136 turns before) to $0.149
(202 turns after). The 202 post-compact turns cost less than half the
136 before them.
This qualifies CB-WP-0003 T04: sessions are bounded-quadratic, not
quadratic. Cost grows with context between compactions and resets at
each one, so the failure mode is a long UNCOMPACTED session. Whether a
fresh session beats a compaction is now measurable, and T04 should
measure it before prescribing one task per session.
Stale $0.66/$92.87 targets updated across survey and workplan.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Collector per ADR-0003: enumerates every transcript including the
subagents/ tree, dedups by requestId, prices per model and per cache
TTL, attributes on (prev_commit, this_commit] intervals, and reconciles
to the cent or aborts.
The positive control caught a real defect on its very first run against
real data, which is the entire argument for writing it:
CA-02 assumed usage is identical across the lines of one requestId.
True in the main transcript (206/206 groups, verified twice — by the
survey and by the adversarial reviewer). FALSE in the subagents/
tree, where output_tokens is a running count: one response reads
5, 5, 195 across its three lines. First-wins scored it at 5.
So CA-02 now splits: input-side counters are charged once and must be
identical (assertion retained); output_tokens resolves to the max
(CA-02a). AC-9 pins the exact 5,5,195 case as a regression test.
The acceptance target moved again as a result, for the third time:
$248.46 -> $92.21 -> $92.87 -> $93.32. AC-1 was computed by the same
first-wins method the tool just disproved, so the tool failing its
target was the tool being correct. Target updated, not the tool.
Measured at the pin: $92.21 main + $1.11 subagent = $93.32, residual
$0.000000. 32.5% UNATTRIBUTED, reported as its own line per CA-10.
make cost / cost-test / cost-pin wired; cost-test added to `make all`
and to CI, where it gates the collector's assertions without needing
transcripts present.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
T05 still named $248.46 as its acceptance test and the Purpose total
still omitted the subagent tree. Both corrected in place, with the
error sequence recorded rather than overwritten.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Normative spec for the cost model (dedup by requestId, per-model and
per-TTL pricing), the attribution contract (ending-at-commit intervals
scoped by sessionId), and the reported shape (composition, not a total).
Every acceptance row names the command that produces its number, per
InnerLoop Step 4. AC-5..AC-8 are the positive control: cb-cost
--self-test must fail on a dedup violation, on zero responses, on a
missing subagent tree, and on 5m cache priced at the 1h rate.
The feasibility check earns its place here: AC-1's $92.87 is reachable
only if CA-06 holds. The earlier $92.21 target was reachable only by a
collector with the exact blind spot the survey documented.
MetricsAndScenarios 1a superseded. Two of its rules struck through
rather than deleted, because both were wrong in instructive ways: "if
the cache split is unknown, count all input at full price" would have
priced 80.5M cache reads at 10x, and "the hub already records tokens"
named as a source what is only ever a lossy sink. M-D2-TOK demoted --
tokens are not comparable across models or cache states.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Instrument: session transcript JSONL, deduped by requestId, priced per
model and per cache TTL. Hub rejected as a source (no cache fields, ~100%
error on the same work), kept as sink. Status bar and billing API
rejected on availability.
Attribution: (prev_commit, this_commit] ending-at-commit, scoped by
sessionId. Explicit session markers rejected because they depend on an
agent remembering a step — the exact failure this workplan exists to fix.
Hub status transitions rejected as an after-the-fact time index.
Stated honestly: we buy accuracy with specification complexity, and D1
gets worse. That trade is only right because the alternative on offer was
not a simpler correct number but one wrong by two orders of magnitude.
Seven failure modes recorded up front, each becoming a T04 test — most
importantly that dedup fails in the under-reporting direction, so the
invariant is asserted at runtime rather than trusted.
Gate satisfied: T04 may now write collector code.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Tier L (structural L, chaos d10=2). Every candidate exercised locally
against the CB-WP-0001 transcript rather than cited.
Verdict: session transcript JSONL is the only exact instrument; git
commits supply the attribution index it lacks; the State Hub is a
durable sink whose schema cannot express cache tokens at all; the
status bar and billing API are eliminated on availability.
Three errors found in this workplan's own Purpose section, all
overstating cost:
- one API response is written as up to six JSONL lines, each
repeating the same usage object (657 lines, 346 responses)
- a multi-model session was priced entirely at Fable 5 rates,
violating a per-model rule MetricsAndScenarios §1a already had
- the transcript is a live file, so an unpinned total is not
repeatable (346 -> 356 responses between two runs minutes apart)
CB-WP-0001 pinned at fc76445: $92.21, not $248.46. The qualitative
finding sharpens rather than weakens — 88.4% of spend is cache, at
256:1 cache-read to output tokens.
Neither error was of the harness-does-nothing class the positive
control was written for; both sums ran over real data. What caught
them was re-deriving a number instead of quoting it. Raised for T07
and for CB-WP-0003 T01.
Also measured: the one subagent (adversarial review) cost $0.66 and is
invisible to a collector reading only the main transcript.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adopts both remediations from CB-EV-0001 §4 (maintainer decision).
Option A — serde_yaml is now optional behind cb-game-runtime's
`scenarios` feature. The scenario module, the ScenarioGame impl and the
string parsers behind it are cfg-gated; cb-sim opts in explicitly. Both
configurations compile and lint clean under -D warnings.
A trap worth recording: `default-features = false` on a *member*
dependency is silently ignored when the workspace dependency does not
specify it. The first attempt gated nothing while looking correct — the
build succeeded and cargo tree still showed all six YAML crates. Fixed
by setting it on the workspace dependency. This is the positive-control
failure mode in miniature: success was not evidence the change applied.
Retarget — AM-4 now measures third-party source under audit, split by
build configuration, replacing a crate count that was unreachable
without undoing K5/K7 and that does not compare across ecosystems.
Re-measured via the new `make dep-weight`, whose own positive control
refuses to report when any crate's source cannot be located:
shipped runtime 23 crates 246,250 lines target <=250,000 met
dev toolchain 29 crates 317,021 lines target <=350,000 met
own source 3,408 lines
Scenario tooling costs 70,771 lines a shipped game never compiles —
the split the single number was hiding.
Targets are set at current measurement plus headroom, so they bind on
future growth rather than retroactively passing what had failed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
AM-4: measured what each remediation option actually buys, rather than
leaving one recommendation unquantified. serde_yaml optional removes 6
crates, not 5 — ryu belongs to that group, since serde_json now uses
zmij for floats. Full ladder: -6 to 27, serde_json -4 more to 23,
inlining SHA-256 -8 to 19, inlining ChaCha12 -4 to 15. Only
reimplementing a primitive gets under 20, so the target is unreachable
without undoing K5/K7.
Also records that crate count compares badly across ecosystems, and
offers the alternative the count is a proxy for: 307,317 lines of
third-party source under audit against 3,398 of our own.
AM-12: corrected from "uncomputable" to measured. The refusal to
estimate was right; the claim that no instrument existed was wrong.
Session transcripts carry exact per-message usage including the cache
breakdown. This session cost $248.46 at Fable 5 rates, of which 53% is
cache reads — cost is driven by context size times turn count, not by
output volume. What is still missing is per-task attribution, since
nothing marks task boundaries in a transcript.
CB-WP-0002 makes cost measurable and attributable: survey the
instruments, decide the attribution model by ADR, spec metrics that
include cost composition rather than a bare total, build a collector
whose positive control refuses to emit unreconciled numbers, and prove
it by answering a question that could not be answered before.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
