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Thirteen challenges, five FATAL, all five conceded. Nothing had reached ground-game, which is the only reason this is a correction and not a retraction. The worst: `Reactive` was not "greedy with one preference changed". It differed in five, including SpendFreedom — ranked 95 unconditionally against greedy's `95 if gated else 0` — so the seat burned its Freedom token in round one of every game. A second change to the exact mechanism under study, and every number in CB-EV-0031 was measuring it. The pass claimed ADR-0018's one-varying-parameter discipline in its own workplan while violating it. GreedyPolicy::rank is now public and the policy delegates, overriding one match arm, so the control is structurally true. Withdrawn entirely: "H1-B suppresses DARVO in the attacker". Disabling H1-B under the corrected policy changes the arm count by exactly zero. The pass hedged the wrong variable — it disclaimed "the number 2" and defended "the direction", and the direction is what failed. The supporting inference was invalid anyway: final Stress cannot show who armed, because DarvoEnded resets the stage and REVERSE gives its owner -2. Corrected: criterion 1 was failed on the greedy column while the pass's own printed table showed 31-1000 arms in the other columns — the selective-column move, in the file that names it. "Peak Stress was 1" was a maximum over StressSet payloads, not held state (true: 2); the baseline game count was 1,600 not 3,200; and "a reckless policy plays identically to a careful one" is refuted by this repo's own rank-95 policy. Inert controls replaced, each verified red against the reviewer's own mutation: the baseline hash test compared two identically-constructed states (serde(skip) on variant left 57/57 green); the `unchanged:` test checked 3 of 7 entries and passed with SOLVE made illegal; H1-A's ordering and H1-B's OU-cancel path had no test at all. edition-check now covers catalog.yaml and rules_delta.yaml, whose digests CB-WP-0038 claimed and never recorded — the review found it and reported it unverified rather than absent, which was the right call. Still open: H1-B on the DARVO extra-Attack path is untested, regulation.rs still skips setup failures silently, and round-5 arms are counted though they can never act. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
123 lines
5.8 KiB
Markdown
123 lines
5.8 KiB
Markdown
# CB-EV-0030 — H1 measured
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CB-WP-0038. Tier L (structural L; **chaos d8 = 8 → override, redraw = L**
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— the override changed nothing). **Declaration 10 of chaos window 3, and
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the window's first 8.** Closed 2026-08-08.
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> **This evidence has not had its tier-L adversarial review** (InnerLoop
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> Step 2). **It may not go to `ground-game` until it has.** It is a
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> measurement of another repo's design hypothesis, which is precisely the
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> case the review exists for.
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**Delivered:** variant selection in the kernel, H1-A and H1-B implemented
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from `rules_delta.yaml`, ground-game's `unchanged:` list asserted rather
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than trusted, and the ATTACK panel re-run for both rule sets.
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---
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## 1. The result, against their own criteria
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`ground-game`'s success criteria (design note §3.2), answered one by one.
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**Three of four fail.**
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> **CORRECTED 2026-08-08 after adversarial review**
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> ([`CB-REV-0001`](../reviews/CB-REV-0001-h1.md)). Criteria 1 and 2 were
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> rendered as flat failures **on the strength of the greedy column
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> alone**, while this pass's own harness printed 31–1000 DARVO arms per
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> cell in the rank-75 and rank-95 columns. That is the selective-column
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> move this project says it exists to prevent, committed in the file that
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> says so. The verdicts below are restated per column.
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| # | criterion | verdict |
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|---|---|---|
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| 1 | DARVO arm rate non-trivial, "not 0/500" | **not a flat fail.** **0** under greedy; **81–1000 per cell** under rank-75 and rank-95, baseline *and* H1. It fails for a seat that regulates and passes for one that does not — see [CB-EV-0031](CB-EV-0031-a-seat-that-does-not-regulate.md) |
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| 2 | ATTACK selection rises for some subpopulation | **mixed.** Greedy attacks **0** times; rank-75's ATTACK *fell* 604 → 180 at 2p; the unregulated seat's rose 0 → 726 |
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| 3 | group success does not collapse | **fails hardest** — greedy's wins go **165 → 0** (3p), **190 → 0** (4p), **200 → 0** (6p) |
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| 4 | Bond/GROUND stay better than DARVO | holds, but **vacuously**: DARVO never fires |
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SHARED GROUND, greedy column, 200 games per cell:
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| seats | baseline won | H1 won |
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|---|---:|---:|
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| 2p | 132 | **68** |
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| 3p | 165 | **0** |
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| 4p | 190 | **0** |
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| 6p | 200 | **0** |
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## 2. Why — and the mechanism is not the one H1 assumed
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H1-A was meant to raise Stress toward the DARVO arm at 5. **It does not
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get there under competent play.** One 3-player game, seed 1:
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| | rounds | final Stress | Problems unclaimed | DARVO armed | outcome |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| baseline | 5 | 0, 1, 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 of 7 — **success** |
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| H1 | 5 | 3, 3, 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 of 7 — **failure** |
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**Greedy spends its actions on Stress instead of Problems.** The pressure
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is answered by regulating, so Stress plateaus around 3 — below the gate at
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4 and well below the arm at 5 — while two Problems go unclaimed and the
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total lands under the threshold.
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**So H1-A behaves as a solve-rate tax, not as DARVO pressure.** And since
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Stress never reaches 4, **H1-B never fires at all under competent play**:
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the self-soothe is unreachable by the policy it was designed to tempt.
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**The seat-count pattern is the tell.** At 2p — three Problems, so a table
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can clear the board — H1 *helps* in SHARED (132 → 68 is a fall, but 2p is
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the only band that still wins at all). At 3p and above the board is bigger
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than the pressure allows a table to clear, and success goes to zero. The
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tax scales with the number of Problems; the intended effect does not.
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## 3. The harness defect caught before the claim
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The first run showed `won`, `atk` and `darvo` **all exactly 0** at 3+
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seats. That is the signature of games being *discarded*, not lost.
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`sweep` had `let Ok(g) = play(st, &mut ps) else { continue };` and **never
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reported its game count**, so a run in which nothing played and a run in
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which nothing won were the same output.
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> **Reporting "H1 makes the game unwinnable" when the truth might have
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> been "our harness threw every H1 game away" would have been the
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> ADR-0018 family — aimed, this time, at another repository's design
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> decision.**
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Instrumented: setup failures counted, `play` errors captured and printed,
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`games != 200` reported. **All 200 ran in every cell.** The zeros are
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real, and now they are known to be real.
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## 4. What this evidence does not say
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- **It does not say H1 is a bad idea.** It says these two deltas, at these
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magnitudes, measured by this panel, do not do what §3.2 asks. Their §6
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already has the branch for it: *"H1 measured | DARVO still ~0 | add Idea
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2 last-place stress (semi only) as H2"*.
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- **The panel is greedy-family throughout** — greedy, and greedy with
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ATTACK reranked to 75 and 95. Plural, per RetrospectiveAnalysis §4.1,
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but not diverse. A policy that *manages Stress badly* would reach 5 and
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arm DARVO, and none of these do. **That is the obvious next measurement
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and it has not been run.**
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- **No felt-play.** GROUND-WP-0003 T01–T05 runs human tables separately,
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and 200-game aggregates cannot say what a table feels like.
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## 5. A tuning direction, offered as a question and not a finding
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If the aim is Stress reaching 5 sometimes, the tax must outrun regulation.
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Candidates, none measured: pressure scaling with the *number* of unclaimed
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Problems rather than a flat +1; applying it only above a Round threshold;
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or lowering the DARVO arm below 5. **Each is a rules change and therefore
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ground-game's to make, not ours to propose as a fix.**
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## 6. Cost
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`make cost`, not inlined. One vendored catalog and one experiment package;
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no new dependency.
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## Open after this pass
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- **The tier-L adversarial review**, before any of this travels.
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- **A policy that regulates badly**, which is the measurement §4 names.
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- **H1-B has never been observed firing** in a real game — only in a unit
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test. A delta that competent play cannot reach is untested where it
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matters.
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