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ground-game packages hypotheses as selectable rules variants — a catalog, a rules_delta.yaml, and prose — and their note is explicit that CSV text alone is not executable here. So the kernel gains a Variant in game state: in the state, therefore in the hash, therefore in the recording, because a scenario replayed under a different variant would diverge silently. Baseline is bit-for-bit what it was, asserted across seat counts and seeds. A variant system that perturbs the baseline invalidates every measurement this repo has. H1-A and H1-B implemented from rules_delta.yaml and mutation-proven on their own defects: "unclaimed" misread as face-up-and-unsolved, and the attacker's Stress read after the attack's effects. Their `unchanged:` list is asserted rather than trusted — that list is their claim about their own experiment. Measured, and three of their four criteria fail. DARVO arm rate is still 0 under greedy; ATTACK selection does not rise and falls for the rank-75 policy; group success collapses from 165/190/200 to 0 at 3/4/6 seats. The mechanism is not the assumed one: greedy answers the pressure by regulating, Stress plateaus at 3, so it never reaches the gate at 4 or the arm at 5 — H1-A acts as a solve-rate tax and H1-B is unreachable under competent play. A harness defect was caught before the claim: sweep discarded refused games silently and never reported its count, so "nobody won" and "nothing played" printed identically. Reporting H1 as unwinnable on that basis would have been the ADR-0018 family aimed at another repo's design. All 200 games ran in every cell; the zeros are real. Chaos d8 = 8 — the window's first override, redrew L against a structural L, so it changed nothing. Window 3 recorded in ChaosRollHistory. NOT REVIEWED: tier L owes a separate-agent adversarial review, and no H1 result may reach ground-game until it has run. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
80 lines
3.6 KiB
Markdown
80 lines
3.6 KiB
Markdown
# Chaos roll — window records
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One entry per chaos window. Split out of `InnerLoopReference.md` when that
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file crossed the loadability limit: this is a **log that grows**, and a log
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inside a reference eventually crowds out the reference.
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The rule itself lives in [`InnerLoop.md`](InnerLoop.md) §Loop tiers; the
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current window's terms are there. This is the history the verdicts rest on.
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**Window 1** (d4, closed 2026-08-02): 12 declarations, **2 overrides**, one
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each way, and **both changed the outcome**. The mechanism was kept and the
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rate dropped d4 → d8 (CB-EV-0015 §5, CB-EV-0016 §4).
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**Window 2** (d8, 2026-08-03 → 2026-08-07): 12 declarations, of which
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**11 rolled at d8** — declaration 1 (CB-WP-0018) opened the window and
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rolled at the old d4. Expected 8s: **1.375**. Observed: **1**.
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| decl | pass | roll | effect |
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|---:|---|---|---|
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| 1 | CB-WP-0018 | d4 = 3 | opened the window at the old rate |
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| 2 | CB-WP-0019 | d8 = 5 | — |
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| **3** | **CB-WP-0020** | **d8 = 8** | **override — drew S over a structural S: changed nothing** |
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| 4 | CB-WP-0021 | d8 = 7 | — |
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| 5–9 | CB-WP-0022…0026 | d8 = 6 ×5 | — |
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| 10 | CB-WP-0027 | d8 = 7 | — |
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| 11 | CB-WP-0028 | d8 = 1 | — |
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| 12 | CB-WP-0029 | d8 = 4 | — |
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**Verdict (ADR-0017): the rate is behaving as designed.** One override
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against 1.375 expected is not a shortage of evidence.
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**Why the retirement condition changed.** *"An override changes nothing
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twice running"* requires a consecutive pair, each with P = 1/3, so ~12
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overrides are expected before one occurs — at ~1.4 overrides per window,
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**~9 windows or roughly 100 declarations**. A gate that cannot cash out on
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any realistic horizon is decoration (ADR-0006 D3). It is now evaluated
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**per window**, needing two consecutive qualifying windows: ~24
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declarations rather than ~100.
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**Four evidence files claimed window 2 produced zero overrides.** They were
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wrong, and each cited the one before rather than counting. See F23 —
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the failure is a claim with no source, asserted once and repeated, which
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no gate here detects.
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**A post-hoc observation, deliberately not acted on.** Declarations 5–9
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rolled six five times running (~1 in 370 for some run of five in eleven
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rolls). `shuf` was tested over 200 rapid successive calls and looks
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uniform, longest run three. Recorded so a future window can check whether
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it recurs; not evidence of anything on its own.
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---
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## Window 3 — opened 2026-08-07 at d8, running to 12 declarations
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| # | pass | roll | override |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | CB-WP-0030 | d8 = 7 | — |
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| 2 | CB-WP-0031 | d8 = 2 | — |
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| 3 | CB-WP-0032 | d8 = 6 | — |
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| 4 | CB-WP-0033 | d8 = 7 | — |
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| 5 | CB-WP-0034 | d8 = 4 | — |
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| 6 | CB-WP-0035 | d8 = 4 | — |
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| 7 | CB-WP-0036 (first declaration) | d8 = 7 | — |
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| 8 | CB-WP-0036 (re-declared L→M) | d8 = 7 | — |
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| 9 | CB-WP-0037 | d8 = 1 | — |
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| 10 | CB-WP-0038 | **d8 = 8** | **yes — redraw L, structural was L, so it changed nothing** |
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**The window's first 8, at declaration 10.** Expectation over ten rolls at
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d8 is 1.25; one is exactly on rate.
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**The override changed nothing**, which is the observation ADR-0017 D2's
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retirement condition is built from — it needs *a full window whose
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overrides all change nothing*, in two consecutive windows. This window now
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has one qualifying override and two declarations left to run.
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**Declaration 8 is a re-declaration of the same workplan**, counted
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separately because it was a materially different pass: CB-WP-0036 was
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re-scoped from L to M after the maintainer moved the animation work out of
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the repo, and a changed declaration is a new declaration or the roll is
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not binding on what was actually built.
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