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65584be429 ASSEMBLY-WP-0017-T01: sentiment reference sig_ref (BR-009 resolved); calibrated pipeline re-run; matching loop weights ≈ 0.5
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-13 21:14:14 +02:00
3b755649af ASSEMBLY-WP-0011 finished: context scenarios (world.context), hypothesis re-test (world_scenarios.py), CrossBorder § 5; Calibration v0.5 (AR E); residuals to WP-0016
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-13 19:53:29 +02:00
e7ef5d463b ASSEMBLY-WP-0011 T01–T03, T06 done, T05 first part: channel inventory and coupling design (CrossBorder.md), world.py coupled simulator with tests, BR-007 test (cross_border.py, DMA effect calibrated ≈ 0), BR-008, coupling indicators
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-13 19:42:11 +02:00
f062588ed9 WP-0015: L4/L7 collected, mapping update, 35/39 targets measured (Calibration v0.4), GSA around calibrated starts, first prediction observations; T06 waits for AR growth and EU/AR Pm
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-13 19:15:58 +02:00
3c2a155f48 Calibration v0.3: 28 measured targets (cloud, frontier-model, search, OS shares; B; US attention; sentiment US/EU/AR; AR adoption), aext and auto fitted, 39/39 in range; WP-0011/0012 context updated
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-13 17:24:04 +02:00
9bd9f6f4b7 Review 2026-10-13: measured Pd, Pmem (StatCounter) and US sentiment (Pew); re-calibration (Calibration v0.2); WP-0011/0012 set up against the calibrated start (ready)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-13 17:17:14 +02:00
7ea8068374 ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T05: GSA per band anchor (gsa_band.py, AdoptionBand § 5); close WP-0009
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-13 17:14:23 +02:00
25f91c73c7 ASSEMBLY-WP-0013-T01–T05: calibration to measured data; calibrated readings (R2 revised, R4 new); BR-006/007; gsa.py --anchor
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-13 16:16:05 +02:00
15828606b4 ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T04: jurisdiction archetypes J1–J4 (perm lever, jurisdictions.py, AdoptionBand § 4, provisional EU/US/AR mapping)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-13 15:04:13 +02:00
56649466ac ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T03: sentiment and legitimacy loop in GADM-0.4 (opt-in); legitimacy.py; AdoptionBand § 3; BR-005
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-13 14:17:21 +02:00
1b0a28361e ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T01/T02: adoption band B1-B4 and probe across it
- gadm04: optional self-enhancement loop (selfenh, default off)
- grounding.py: band anchors slow/central/fast/aggressive (B4 selfenh 3.0)
- band_probe.py: 36 readings across the band - 22 robust, 7 quantitative
  shifts, 7 qualitative breaks; core claims robust; moderate reforms suffice
  only under conservative adoption; under B4 lineage control dominates even
  in the generative regime (structural candidate)
- models/AdoptionBand.md, research/BreakRegister.md (BR-001..004)

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2026-10-12 10:58:47 +02:00
218d196738 ASSEMBLY-WP-0008: empirical grounding of key GADM parameters
- Research on organism adoption, commons, power persistence, lobbying,
  human-capital persistence, age gaps and care load
- grounding.py: grounded parameter sets (central / slow adoption) with own
  equilibrium start and recalibrated channels; tested
- grounded_readings.py: all structural readings survive grounding; default
  adopts organisms too fast; governance stakes rise with adoption speed;
  care load overstated ~4x (joint recalibration of attention extraction)
- ParameterGrounding.md v0.2: register with statuses, evidence, mappings,
  validation/falsification tests for ASSEMBLY-WP-0007
- GADM-0.4 model version finalised

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2026-10-12 09:45:19 +02:00
09cace5e83 ASSEMBLY-WP-0006-T05: agency per cohort; finish WP-0006; add WP-0008
- gadm04: working-age and senior agency (restartability, digital exclusion,
  care support, education-shaped entry agency); equilibrium start; switch
  reproduces aggregate model (tested)
- agency.py: G1 supported modestly, G2 not supported (agency driven by
  current conditions), G3 supported (care relief ~55% of senior gain)
- GADM-0.4 complete; ASSEMBLY-WP-0008 (empirical grounding, proposed residual)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-12 09:37:43 +02:00
6077f6a815 ASSEMBLY-WP-0006-T04: equilibrium initialisation of wealth and cohort attention
- gadm04: W, Aw, As start at their equilibria (equilibrium_init, tested);
  channel counters calibrated at GADM-0.4's own initial state
- robustness/gsa use the model's own calibration
- P3 now holds in all robustness variants (the T02 exception was an
  initial-condition artifact); life-cycle readings confirmed
- GSA rerun: model mostly additive (sum S1 ~0.99 generative, was 0.89);
  governance levers m, L, r_lin strongly non-linear; T03 reading corrected

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-12 09:35:20 +02:00
ffff0b3a3c ASSEMBLY-WP-0006-T03: global sensitivity on GADM-0.4
- gsa.py: any model (--model), parallel (--jobs), channel counters
  recalibrated per sample; reproduces the GADM-0.2 analysis exactly
- GADM-0.4: additive at baseline, but governance levers (m, L, r_lin)
  interact strongly in the generative regime; commons investment now the
  top baseline driver; organism capability level confirmed as top
  uncertainty; explainability gains weight via power channels

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2026-10-12 08:45:06 +02:00
6462040a15 ASSEMBLY-WP-0006-T06: scope sectors and goods; add ASSEMBLY-WP-0007
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-12 08:41:25 +02:00
ee7b17da5e ASSEMBLY-WP-0006-T02: ground organism depreciation, robustness checks
- dO grounded at 0.20/yr (software, R&D capital, AI hardware evidence);
  investment/learning rescaled so the baseline organism path is unchanged
- robustness.py: key readings hold for grounded dO and brackets on channel
  self-reinforcement and wealth conversion; P3 effect size grows at strong
  self-reinforcement
- models/ParameterGrounding.md: register of grounded / bracketed / assumed /
  calibrated parameters, open grounding needs

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-12 08:27:08 +02:00
c03cf98756 ASSEMBLY-WP-0006-T01: durable human capability (GADM-0.4)
- gadm04.py: cohort capability split into durable (education-formed, slow
  depreciation, birth dilution) and current components; learning begets
  learning; starts identical to GADM-0.3 (tested)
- L3 now supported: education reaches working-age capability with a 17-year
  half-time and 3x the effect; L1 still holds, more weakly
- life_cycle.py selectable per model; GADM-0.3 results unchanged

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2026-10-12 08:24:34 +02:00
b6a0d7b3ff ASSEMBLY-WP-0005-T06: life-cycle cohorts; finish WP-0005; add WP-0006
- gadm03c.py: four cohorts with demography, cohort capability, mentoring,
  care load on attention; stationary at replacement fertility (tested)
- life_cycle.py: L1 supported after fixing an inert mentoring term; L2
  conditional on who carries care per person, care relief via participation
  claims protects carers' attention; L3 not supported (H lacks a durable
  component)
- GADM-0.3.md complete; ASSEMBLY-WP-0006 (GADM-0.4, proposed residual)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-12 07:38:22 +02:00
7707657464 ASSEMBLY-WP-0005-T05: attention recalibration and 2x2x2 organism grid
- aext recalibrated to 0.275 against ATUS and social-media time-use data;
  baseline attention headroom now ~0.49 instead of rising to 0.65
- T03/T04 stages stay reproducible (t03_params, t04_params; verified)
- organism_grid.py: factorial analysis; lineage ownership is the strongest
  organism lever, then membrane control, then attention protection (which
  acts on A, not on power); lineage x membrane complementary at baseline;
  organism governance without attention protection raises attention draw

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-12 07:34:59 +02:00
c8329c6965 ASSEMBLY-WP-0005-T04: separate wealth from power (GADM-0.3)
- Wealth-concentration stock W with wealth-tax lever; converts into market
  and political channels only, moderated by checks (Q*S)
- wealth_on switch reproduces the T03 model exactly (verified)
- wealth.py: P3 supported and robust to conversion strength (full wealth
  tax lowers P by only 0.01-0.05 because membrane/lineage control does not
  run on wealth); effect on reachable channels depends on k_w
- Tests for wealth switch and tax direction

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-12 07:32:57 +02:00
22c0335f07 ASSEMBLY-WP-0005-T03: power channels as sub-stocks (GADM-0.3)
- simulations/gadm02/gadm03.py: six domination channels with drivers,
  counters and increasing returns; geometric aggregation; equilibrium
  calibration with stability guard (unit-tested)
- power_channels.py: P1 mostly unsupported over 100 years, except lineage
  hysteresis under the generative regime (lock-in above ~0.3) and market
  path dependence at baseline; P2 supported (critical lineage diffusion
  rises with learning amplification)
- models/GADM-0.3.md; metrics catalog requires channel-level reporting

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2026-10-12 06:39:24 +02:00
144d6b78fc ASSEMBLY-WP-0005-T01: time unit and global sensitivity analysis
- One period = one year; implied timescales documented
- simulations/gadm02/gsa.py: Morris screening + Sobol indices (S1 Saltelli
  2010 centred, ST Jansen) with bootstrap CIs
- GADM-0.2 readings updated: model nearly additive within ±50 %; the
  'reuse as a bundle' interaction reading is refuted; organism governance
  levers confirmed globally; dO flagged as calibration priority

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2026-10-12 01:37:35 +02:00
0e372398bf Implement ASSEMBLY-WP-0004: GADM-0.2 model, simulation, scenarios, sensitivity
- models/GADM-CLD.md: causal-loop diagram, loops, 49 signed links
- models/GADM-0.2.md: organism extensions (K split, attention headroom,
  selection channel O, membrane/lineage levers, participation claims),
  equations, findings
- simulations/gadm02: stdlib simulation, scenario runner, OAT sensitivity,
  unit tests; results committed
- scenarios/: six GADM-0.1 regimes + baseline + two organism-axis variants
- metrics/MetricsCatalog.md, models/GADM-0.3-Candidates.md,
  references/LiteratureComparison.md
- ASSEMBLY-WP-0005 (proposed, residual): GADM-0.3

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2026-10-12 00:43:53 +02:00
8601b91da2 Complete ASSEMBLY-WP-0003; add GADM organism mapping, glossary, ASSEMBLY-WP-0004
- models/InformationOrganismsInGADM.md: maps information organisms onto
  GADM-0.1 stocks and flows, lists missing variables (attention headroom,
  K_Omega, compute, membrane control, participation claims)
- concepts/Glossary.md: reconciles society and organism vocabularies
- README.md and SCOPE.md aligned with ratified INTENT.md
- ASSEMBLY-WP-0004 (proposed): GADM-0.2 modeling from INTENT next steps 2-10
- ASSEMBLY-WP-0002-T09: apply glossary recommendations

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2026-10-12 00:22:39 +02:00
edba249364 Integrate seed artifacts: promote concept digest and GADM-0.1, add ASSEMBLY-WP-0003
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-12 00:18:50 +02:00