coulomb/assembly-economics
5
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull requests Projects Releases Packages Wiki Activity Actions
84 commits 1 branch 0 tags 1.9 MiB
Commit graph

84 commits

This branch
This branch
All branches
Author SHA1 Message Date
tegwick
97d0fb71a9 ASSEMBLY-WP-0017-T06: Census private office construction (data centers) as investment indicator L5b; T05 unblocked 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 22:09:14 +02:00
repo-manager
932046d58d repo.work.assign_missing_identifiers 
source: repo-manager
reason: deterministic projection registration

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 22:07:28 +02:00
tegwick
0ccf4f7cf7 ASSEMBLY-WP-0017-T04 passed: flips judged on anchor weights (6/6 switches in 0.5 y, 0 false flips); reliance on investment documented; T06 AI-specific investment series 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 22:07:26 +02:00
tegwick
0f6ef9fb3b ASSEMBLY-WP-0017 T02/T03 done, T04 in progress: IMM multi-indicator regime filter (0 false flips, accelerations detected in 1-1.5 y, slowdowns only after 2.5-3.75 y); observed investment and discovery series 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 21:35:28 +02:00
tegwick
65584be429 ASSEMBLY-WP-0017-T01: sentiment reference sig_ref (BR-009 resolved); calibrated pipeline re-run; matching loop weights ≈ 0.5 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 21:14:14 +02:00
repo-manager
3b85440a17 repo.work.assign_missing_identifiers 
source: repo-manager
reason: deterministic projection registration

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 20:33:40 +02:00
tegwick
597eb4176e ASSEMBLY-WP-0012 finished: model matching (matching.py, observed series), flip definition and regime filter, synthetic test (negative: flips not yet reliable), FlipRegister, BR-009; residuals to WP-0017 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 20:33:38 +02:00
repo-manager
eeb5c28284 repo.work.assign_missing_identifiers 
source: repo-manager
reason: deterministic projection registration

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 19:53:30 +02:00
tegwick
3b755649af ASSEMBLY-WP-0011 finished: context scenarios (world.context), hypothesis re-test (world_scenarios.py), CrossBorder § 5; Calibration v0.5 (AR E); residuals to WP-0016 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 19:53:29 +02:00
tegwick
a4b4413098 Execution declaration approved by the founder (decision addendum); WP-0014-T01 updated 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 19:46:38 +02:00
tegwick
e7ef5d463b ASSEMBLY-WP-0011 T01–T03, T06 done, T05 first part: channel inventory and coupling design (CrossBorder.md), world.py coupled simulator with tests, BR-007 test (cross_border.py, DMA effect calibrated ≈ 0), BR-008, coupling indicators 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 19:42:11 +02:00
tegwick
2ca56e5f36 WP-0014-T01 in progress: declaration drafted, harness questions sent 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 19:37:28 +02:00
tegwick
5554d5e602 ASSEMBLY-WP-0014-T01: draft execution declaration for assembly-checkpoint (for owner approval) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 19:37:15 +02:00
repo-manager
8098c59a44 repo.work.assign_missing_identifiers 
source: repo-manager
reason: deterministic projection registration

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 19:15:59 +02:00
tegwick
f062588ed9 WP-0015: L4/L7 collected, mapping update, 35/39 targets measured (Calibration v0.4), GSA around calibrated starts, first prediction observations; T06 waits for AR growth and EU/AR Pm 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 19:15:58 +02:00
tegwick
3c2a155f48 Calibration v0.3: 28 measured targets (cloud, frontier-model, search, OS shares; B; US attention; sentiment US/EU/AR; AR adoption), aext and auto fitted, 39/39 in range; WP-0011/0012 context updated 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 17:24:04 +02:00
tegwick
9bd9f6f4b7 Review 2026-10-13: measured Pd, Pmem (StatCounter) and US sentiment (Pew); re-calibration (Calibration v0.2); WP-0011/0012 set up against the calibrated start (ready) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 17:17:14 +02:00
tegwick
7ea8068374 ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T05: GSA per band anchor (gsa_band.py, AdoptionBand § 5); close WP-0009 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 17:14:23 +02:00
tegwick
7ae5ab682c WP-0014/0015: flavor residual 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 16:37:29 +02:00
repo-manager
f272446da2 repo.work.assign_missing_identifiers 
source: repo-manager
reason: deterministic projection registration

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 16:36:45 +02:00
tegwick
84d4f4067b Close WP-0010 and WP-0013; residuals to new WP-0014 (checkpoint operations 2027) and WP-0015 (first checkpoint review); WP-0011/0012 depend on WP-0015 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 16:36:22 +02:00
repo-manager
b1c7d4c549 repo.work.assign_missing_identifiers 
source: repo-manager
reason: deterministic projection registration

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 16:16:11 +02:00
tegwick
25f91c73c7 ASSEMBLY-WP-0013-T01–T05: calibration to measured data; calibrated readings (R2 revised, R4 new); BR-006/007; gsa.py --anchor 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 16:16:05 +02:00
tegwick
141c5d9e5c ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06: predictions v1 (P-2026-001…004), growth-aligned band ranges; runner cites registered predictions 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 16:01:15 +02:00
repo-manager
8ce35a3597 repo.work.assign_missing_identifiers 
source: repo-manager
reason: deterministic projection registration

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 15:58:22 +02:00
tegwick
ca7e1abd95 New workplans: WP-0011 cross-border coupling, WP-0012 model matching and flipping, WP-0013 calibration (0011/0012 wait on 0013) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 15:58:20 +02:00
tegwick
15828606b4 ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T04: jurisdiction archetypes J1–J4 (perm lever, jurisdictions.py, AdoptionBand § 4, provisional EU/US/AR mapping) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 15:04:13 +02:00
tegwick
c4b4be4b4c Regenerate agency.md (model version header only) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 14:18:00 +02:00
tegwick
56649466ac ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T03: sentiment and legitimacy loop in GADM-0.4 (opt-in); legitimacy.py; AdoptionBand § 3; BR-005 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 14:17:21 +02:00
tegwick
b1bb18e14d ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T07 done: railiance01 web-fetcher tracks Forgejo origin 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 14:13:56 +02:00
tegwick
b0501e1ea7 ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T07: web-fetcher on Forgejo and registered; railiance01 repoint open 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 14:08:35 +02:00
tegwick
c69b037f1b ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T08: 22 verified full-checkpoint source specs; catalog access classes corrected 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 13:28:07 +02:00
repo-manager
620346fe84 repo.work.assign_missing_identifiers 
source: repo-manager
reason: deterministic projection registration

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 10:44:42 +02:00
tegwick
f67787017c ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T01: indicator catalog v0.2 — sensor bundles for all stocks; T08 for source wiring 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
 2026-10-13 10:44:35 +02:00
rein-aharness
4c49310a18 Checkpoint 2026-10-13 (light) — activity-core 2026-10-13 06:01:06 +00:00
tegwick
f6c03f5794 Sync after WP-0010 update 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
 2026-10-12 18:52:15 +02:00
tegwick
9b28eb4980 ASSEMBLY-WP-0010: schedule live via activity-core + rein-aharness; checkpoint 0; decision record 
- T02/T03/T04 done: protocol, baseline checkpoint 0 (2026-10-12), recurring
  schedule (activity-core f9f2640, rein-aharness 06bd08c)
- docs/decisions/2026-10-12-checkpoint-origin-publication.md
- New tasks: T05 governed execution profile before 2026-12-31, T06 disable
  transitional definitions in 2027, T07 publish/register web-fetcher
- AGENTS.md: checkpoint commands

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
 2026-10-12 18:51:59 +02:00
rein-aharness
b75f305599 Checkpoint 2026-10-12 (light) — activity-core 2026-10-12 16:50:34 +00:00
tegwick
3a0f9d4a6a Enable checkpoint definitions; one-day baseline window for checkpoint 0 (2026-10-12) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
 2026-10-12 18:48:12 +02:00
tegwick
33dd015105 Checkpoint runner: comparability caveat in assessment prompt 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
 2026-10-12 18:47:18 +02:00
tegwick
104aad6f3c Checkpoint runner: stricter assessment prompt; debug output for rejected assessments 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
 2026-10-12 18:46:45 +02:00
tegwick
c0254aa2da Checkpoint executor: deterministic runner, sources, tests; definitions route to assembly-checkpoint 
- checkpoints/run_checkpoint.py: window guard, web-fetcher fetch with
  provenance, record + raw JSONL, optional llm-connect assessment rejected if
  it contains numbers not in the fetched data
- checkpoints/sources.json: BTOS (US), Eurostat isoc_eb_ai (EU, DE), FRED
  info-processing investment (US); manual entries for AR, usage indices,
  sentiment, legislation
- activity definitions: label assembly-checkpoint (rein-aharness approach)
- PLAYBOOK: automated path + manual/agent path

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
 2026-10-12 18:45:12 +02:00
tegwick
72feabf573 ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T02 (part): checkpoint protocol, playbook, schedule, catalog v0.1, register; activity definitions 
- checkpoints/: schedule (phase windows, authoritative), README protocol,
  PLAYBOOK for the executing agent, IndicatorCatalog v0.1 (light + full),
  append-only predictions register
- activity-definitions/: setup-daily (13-15 Oct 2026), monthly-2026,
  quarterly, annual; agent-session label routes to rein-aharness

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
 2026-10-12 18:21:55 +02:00
tegwick
1b0a28361e ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T01/T02: adoption band B1-B4 and probe across it 
- gadm04: optional self-enhancement loop (selfenh, default off)
- grounding.py: band anchors slow/central/fast/aggressive (B4 selfenh 3.0)
- band_probe.py: 36 readings across the band - 22 robust, 7 quantitative
  shifts, 7 qualitative breaks; core claims robust; moderate reforms suffice
  only under conservative adoption; under B4 lineage control dominates even
  in the generative regime (structural candidate)
- models/AdoptionBand.md, research/BreakRegister.md (BR-001..004)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
 2026-10-12 10:58:47 +02:00
custodian-sync
f21be21919 chore(consistency): renormalize lifecycle state [auto] 
Updated by fix-consistency on 2026-10-12:
  - workplan status: ready → active

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
 2026-10-12 10:56:17 +02:00
tegwick
bebed353b6 Sync State Hub IDs for WP-0009/0010 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
 2026-10-12 10:56:03 +02:00
tegwick
20f5410a7b Adopt scenario-band method; add ASSEMBLY-WP-0009 and WP-0010 
- research/ScenarioBandMethod.md: adoption band B1-B4 (conservative to
  aggressive self-enhancing), legislation and sentiment modulators,
  mechanism-defined jurisdiction archetypes, robustness classes across the
  band, reality checkpoints with pre-registered predictions
- INTENT.md Research Method: pointer to the method
- WP-0009 (active): band, probe, legitimacy loop, archetypes
- WP-0010 (ready): indicator catalog, protocol, baseline checkpoint, cadence
- WP-0007 now depends on WP-0009 and reports across the band

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
 2026-10-12 10:55:35 +02:00
tegwick
5e8fc56603 Sync State Hub intake IDs 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
 2026-10-12 10:54:13 +02:00
tegwick
86373727a9 File residual leftovers as intakes ASSEMBLY-IN-0001..0010 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
 2026-10-12 10:53:26 +02:00
tegwick
218d196738 ASSEMBLY-WP-0008: empirical grounding of key GADM parameters 
- Research on organism adoption, commons, power persistence, lobbying,
  human-capital persistence, age gaps and care load
- grounding.py: grounded parameter sets (central / slow adoption) with own
  equilibrium start and recalibrated channels; tested
- grounded_readings.py: all structural readings survive grounding; default
  adopts organisms too fast; governance stakes rise with adoption speed;
  care load overstated ~4x (joint recalibration of attention extraction)
- ParameterGrounding.md v0.2: register with statuses, evidence, mappings,
  validation/falsification tests for ASSEMBLY-WP-0007
- GADM-0.4 model version finalised

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
 2026-10-12 09:45:19 +02:00