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tegwick
b87308d6ac WP-0015-T06: AR adoption growth and Pm sources found (OWID/Microsoft, FRED GFDD); fix Google/IDB citation; WP-0014: rein-aharness status and pin branch 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-19 15:02:47 +02:00
tegwick
2521955749 Pin checkpoint runs to web-fetcher v0.2.0; add --cache/--replay 
run_checkpoint.py refuses web-fetcher versions other than 0.2.0, records the
version in record and summary, and passes --cache/--replay through to
run_spec. Verified: live run with --cache and offline --replay give identical
observations. Execution declaration, AGENTS.md and ASSEMBLY-WP-0014 updated.
Requested by web-fetcher (WEBFETCH-WP-0003-T03).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-19 14:47:15 +02:00
rein-aharness
16887af699 Checkpoint 2026-10-15 (light) — activity-core 2026-10-15 06:01:20 +00:00
rein-aharness
3e5d6524a3 Checkpoint 2026-10-15 (light) — activity-core 2026-10-15 06:01:09 +00:00
rein-aharness
9362a80af5 Checkpoint 2026-10-14 (light) — activity-core 2026-10-14 06:00:51 +00:00
tegwick
dc4e3adc99 Close loose ends: WP-0018 finished (T04 capture link tested, T05 reference-model decision), WP-0016 finished (J4 from China data), WP-0014 blocked (owner declaration + grant v2 confirmed; waits on rein-aharness publisher and 2027), WP-0015 blocked (EU Pm measured, noise calibrated; AR data and Q4 2026 data pending); Calibration v0.6 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-14 02:31:02 +02:00
tegwick
78d79ac4e3 ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-T01: dematerialization vs. Eurostat resource productivity; operator corrected; decoupling depends on phi_r (EU fit 0.66: none; DE 0.15: holds), BR-011; E5 wired 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 23:26:24 +02:00
tegwick
8bb8c8fd4b ASSEMBLY-WP-0016-T04: export channel (xport), H2 split (output yes from 4.5 % of GDP exports without the loop; VFAC no); CrossBorder § 7; CB6 indicator 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 22:53:40 +02:00
tegwick
945b28e6ab ASSEMBLY-WP-0017 finished: IMM filter on observed US data (B3 through mid-2026, B3→B4 flip candidate Q3 2026, not confirmed), robustness, checkpoint pointer; residual to WP-0015-T07 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 22:41:08 +02:00
tegwick
97d0fb71a9 ASSEMBLY-WP-0017-T06: Census private office construction (data centers) as investment indicator L5b; T05 unblocked 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 22:09:14 +02:00
tegwick
a4b4413098 Execution declaration approved by the founder (decision addendum); WP-0014-T01 updated 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 19:46:38 +02:00
tegwick
e7ef5d463b ASSEMBLY-WP-0011 T01–T03, T06 done, T05 first part: channel inventory and coupling design (CrossBorder.md), world.py coupled simulator with tests, BR-007 test (cross_border.py, DMA effect calibrated ≈ 0), BR-008, coupling indicators 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 19:42:11 +02:00
tegwick
5554d5e602 ASSEMBLY-WP-0014-T01: draft execution declaration for assembly-checkpoint (for owner approval) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 19:37:15 +02:00
tegwick
f062588ed9 WP-0015: L4/L7 collected, mapping update, 35/39 targets measured (Calibration v0.4), GSA around calibrated starts, first prediction observations; T06 waits for AR growth and EU/AR Pm 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 19:15:58 +02:00
tegwick
3c2a155f48 Calibration v0.3: 28 measured targets (cloud, frontier-model, search, OS shares; B; US attention; sentiment US/EU/AR; AR adoption), aext and auto fitted, 39/39 in range; WP-0011/0012 context updated 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 17:24:04 +02:00
tegwick
9bd9f6f4b7 Review 2026-10-13: measured Pd, Pmem (StatCounter) and US sentiment (Pew); re-calibration (Calibration v0.2); WP-0011/0012 set up against the calibrated start (ready) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 17:17:14 +02:00
tegwick
141c5d9e5c ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06: predictions v1 (P-2026-001…004), growth-aligned band ranges; runner cites registered predictions 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 16:01:15 +02:00
tegwick
c69b037f1b ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T08: 22 verified full-checkpoint source specs; catalog access classes corrected 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 13:28:07 +02:00
tegwick
f67787017c ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T01: indicator catalog v0.2 — sensor bundles for all stocks; T08 for source wiring 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 10:44:35 +02:00
rein-aharness
4c49310a18 Checkpoint 2026-10-13 (light) — activity-core 2026-10-13 06:01:06 +00:00
rein-aharness
b75f305599 Checkpoint 2026-10-12 (light) — activity-core 2026-10-12 16:50:34 +00:00
tegwick
3a0f9d4a6a Enable checkpoint definitions; one-day baseline window for checkpoint 0 (2026-10-12) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-12 18:48:12 +02:00
tegwick
33dd015105 Checkpoint runner: comparability caveat in assessment prompt 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-12 18:47:18 +02:00
tegwick
104aad6f3c Checkpoint runner: stricter assessment prompt; debug output for rejected assessments 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-12 18:46:45 +02:00
tegwick
c0254aa2da Checkpoint executor: deterministic runner, sources, tests; definitions route to assembly-checkpoint 
- checkpoints/run_checkpoint.py: window guard, web-fetcher fetch with
  provenance, record + raw JSONL, optional llm-connect assessment rejected if
  it contains numbers not in the fetched data
- checkpoints/sources.json: BTOS (US), Eurostat isoc_eb_ai (EU, DE), FRED
  info-processing investment (US); manual entries for AR, usage indices,
  sentiment, legislation
- activity definitions: label assembly-checkpoint (rein-aharness approach)
- PLAYBOOK: automated path + manual/agent path

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-12 18:45:12 +02:00
tegwick
72feabf573 ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T02 (part): checkpoint protocol, playbook, schedule, catalog v0.1, register; activity definitions 
- checkpoints/: schedule (phase windows, authoritative), README protocol,
  PLAYBOOK for the executing agent, IndicatorCatalog v0.1 (light + full),
  append-only predictions register
- activity-definitions/: setup-daily (13-15 Oct 2026), monthly-2026,
  quarterly, annual; agent-session label routes to rein-aharness

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-12 18:21:55 +02:00