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tegwick
dae2cdd3e7 Adopt staged WORK-RECORDS generation and catch the index up. 
The generated index had drifted from the workplan files. The opt-in lets
the pre-commit hook rebuild WORK-RECORDS.md in the same commit as the
workplan it indexes.

Assistant: grok
Assistant-Session: 01a17f9d-fe9d-7d72-9a22-6304f1a2a790
 2026-10-28 00:30:36 +01:00
tegwick
a13e5dde64 Calibration v0.7: AR market concentration measured (GFDD top-10 57-80 %), AR adoption growth narrowed (1.36-1.65) by OWID/Microsoft relative signal 
AR k 2.00 -> 2.18; 51/51 targets in range, 43 measured. Readings R1-R4,
cross-border, world and export verdicts unchanged. dematerialization.md
regenerated (was stale). ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T06 stays wait for a firm-level
second AR point and a current S&P/BYMA constituent file.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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tegwick
b87308d6ac WP-0015-T06: AR adoption growth and Pm sources found (OWID/Microsoft, FRED GFDD); fix Google/IDB citation; WP-0014: rein-aharness status and pin branch 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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tegwick
2521955749 Pin checkpoint runs to web-fetcher v0.2.0; add --cache/--replay 
run_checkpoint.py refuses web-fetcher versions other than 0.2.0, records the
version in record and summary, and passes --cache/--replay through to
run_spec. Verified: live run with --cache and offline --replay give identical
observations. Execution declaration, AGENTS.md and ASSEMBLY-WP-0014 updated.
Requested by web-fetcher (WEBFETCH-WP-0003-T03).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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rein-aharness
16887af699 Checkpoint 2026-10-15 (light) — activity-core 2026-10-15 06:01:20 +00:00
rein-aharness
3e5d6524a3 Checkpoint 2026-10-15 (light) — activity-core 2026-10-15 06:01:09 +00:00
rein-aharness
9362a80af5 Checkpoint 2026-10-14 (light) — activity-core 2026-10-14 06:00:51 +00:00
tegwick
dc4e3adc99 Close loose ends: WP-0018 finished (T04 capture link tested, T05 reference-model decision), WP-0016 finished (J4 from China data), WP-0014 blocked (owner declaration + grant v2 confirmed; waits on rein-aharness publisher and 2027), WP-0015 blocked (EU Pm measured, noise calibrated; AR data and Q4 2026 data pending); Calibration v0.6 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-14 02:31:02 +02:00
tegwick
b62111ee3e ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-T02: ecological classes grounded (control variables, IEA compute load e2 0.0015, copper reserves); physical load on rival capacity; sinks breach disappears; BR-011 conflict sharpened 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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tegwick
bab551a509 WP-0018-T02 started: first control variable recorded; remaining sources listed 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 23:33:55 +02:00
tegwick
e04bb8250c ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-T03: phi_r 0.15 and xn 0.6 grounded (Anthropic Economic Index, GitHub Octoverse); GADM-0.5 experiments re-run; BR-011 update 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 23:33:04 +02:00
tegwick
78d79ac4e3 ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-T01: dematerialization vs. Eurostat resource productivity; operator corrected; decoupling depends on phi_r (EU fit 0.66: none; DE 0.15: holds), BR-011; E5 wired 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 23:26:24 +02:00
repo-manager
956b9576b5 repo.work.assign_missing_identifiers 
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 2026-10-13 23:17:38 +02:00
tegwick
509a50eb04 ASSEMBLY-WP-0007 finished: T04 two-good demand split (genuine decoupling in the generative regime, sinks breach postponed; BR-010 resolved); residuals to WP-0018 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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tegwick
80055bc700 ASSEMBLY-WP-0007-T03: endogenous selection weights (capture slow; robust capture/de-capture; no material VFAC effect); T04 opened as two-good demand split 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 23:15:04 +02:00
tegwick
8dd9e97d33 ASSEMBLY-WP-0007-T02: ecological resource classes (renewables, materials, sinks); sinks bind the generative regime; grounding test passed; low-carbon lever 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 23:11:25 +02:00
tegwick
e05c8f100f ASSEMBLY-WP-0007 active, T01 done: GADM-0.5-dev rival/non-rival output (phi_r, xn); commons feed carries the non-rival effect, no genuine decoupling (BR-010) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 23:07:39 +02:00
tegwick
824187da3b ASSEMBLY-WP-0016-T02: endogenous foreign shares and split calibration hook (domestic segment with own counters); share-shifting levers effective but modest; CrossBorder § 8 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 22:59:32 +02:00
tegwick
8bb8c8fd4b ASSEMBLY-WP-0016-T04: export channel (xport), H2 split (output yes from 4.5 % of GDP exports without the loop; VFAC no); CrossBorder § 7; CB6 indicator 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 22:53:40 +02:00
tegwick
758f112f49 ASSEMBLY-WP-0016-T01: lineage portability and lineage/cloud host access rules; T03 kappa not identified; CrossBorder § 6 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 22:50:09 +02:00
repo-manager
e09f13354f repo.work.assign_missing_identifiers 
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 2026-10-13 22:41:12 +02:00
tegwick
945b28e6ab ASSEMBLY-WP-0017 finished: IMM filter on observed US data (B3 through mid-2026, B3→B4 flip candidate Q3 2026, not confirmed), robustness, checkpoint pointer; residual to WP-0015-T07 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 22:41:08 +02:00
tegwick
97d0fb71a9 ASSEMBLY-WP-0017-T06: Census private office construction (data centers) as investment indicator L5b; T05 unblocked 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 22:09:14 +02:00
repo-manager
932046d58d repo.work.assign_missing_identifiers 
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tegwick
0ccf4f7cf7 ASSEMBLY-WP-0017-T04 passed: flips judged on anchor weights (6/6 switches in 0.5 y, 0 false flips); reliance on investment documented; T06 AI-specific investment series 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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tegwick
0f6ef9fb3b ASSEMBLY-WP-0017 T02/T03 done, T04 in progress: IMM multi-indicator regime filter (0 false flips, accelerations detected in 1-1.5 y, slowdowns only after 2.5-3.75 y); observed investment and discovery series 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 21:35:28 +02:00
tegwick
65584be429 ASSEMBLY-WP-0017-T01: sentiment reference sig_ref (BR-009 resolved); calibrated pipeline re-run; matching loop weights ≈ 0.5 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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repo-manager
3b85440a17 repo.work.assign_missing_identifiers 
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 2026-10-13 20:33:40 +02:00
tegwick
597eb4176e ASSEMBLY-WP-0012 finished: model matching (matching.py, observed series), flip definition and regime filter, synthetic test (negative: flips not yet reliable), FlipRegister, BR-009; residuals to WP-0017 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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repo-manager
eeb5c28284 repo.work.assign_missing_identifiers 
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 2026-10-13 19:53:30 +02:00
tegwick
3b755649af ASSEMBLY-WP-0011 finished: context scenarios (world.context), hypothesis re-test (world_scenarios.py), CrossBorder § 5; Calibration v0.5 (AR E); residuals to WP-0016 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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tegwick
a4b4413098 Execution declaration approved by the founder (decision addendum); WP-0014-T01 updated 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 19:46:38 +02:00
tegwick
e7ef5d463b ASSEMBLY-WP-0011 T01–T03, T06 done, T05 first part: channel inventory and coupling design (CrossBorder.md), world.py coupled simulator with tests, BR-007 test (cross_border.py, DMA effect calibrated ≈ 0), BR-008, coupling indicators 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 19:42:11 +02:00
tegwick
2ca56e5f36 WP-0014-T01 in progress: declaration drafted, harness questions sent 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 19:37:28 +02:00
tegwick
5554d5e602 ASSEMBLY-WP-0014-T01: draft execution declaration for assembly-checkpoint (for owner approval) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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8098c59a44 repo.work.assign_missing_identifiers 
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 2026-10-13 19:15:59 +02:00
tegwick
f062588ed9 WP-0015: L4/L7 collected, mapping update, 35/39 targets measured (Calibration v0.4), GSA around calibrated starts, first prediction observations; T06 waits for AR growth and EU/AR Pm 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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tegwick
3c2a155f48 Calibration v0.3: 28 measured targets (cloud, frontier-model, search, OS shares; B; US attention; sentiment US/EU/AR; AR adoption), aext and auto fitted, 39/39 in range; WP-0011/0012 context updated 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 17:24:04 +02:00
tegwick
9bd9f6f4b7 Review 2026-10-13: measured Pd, Pmem (StatCounter) and US sentiment (Pew); re-calibration (Calibration v0.2); WP-0011/0012 set up against the calibrated start (ready) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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tegwick
7ea8068374 ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T05: GSA per band anchor (gsa_band.py, AdoptionBand § 5); close WP-0009 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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tegwick
7ae5ab682c WP-0014/0015: flavor residual 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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tegwick
84d4f4067b Close WP-0010 and WP-0013; residuals to new WP-0014 (checkpoint operations 2027) and WP-0015 (first checkpoint review); WP-0011/0012 depend on WP-0015 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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b1c7d4c549 repo.work.assign_missing_identifiers 
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 2026-10-13 16:16:11 +02:00
tegwick
25f91c73c7 ASSEMBLY-WP-0013-T01–T05: calibration to measured data; calibrated readings (R2 revised, R4 new); BR-006/007; gsa.py --anchor 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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tegwick
141c5d9e5c ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06: predictions v1 (P-2026-001…004), growth-aligned band ranges; runner cites registered predictions 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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 2026-10-13 15:58:22 +02:00
tegwick
ca7e1abd95 New workplans: WP-0011 cross-border coupling, WP-0012 model matching and flipping, WP-0013 calibration (0011/0012 wait on 0013) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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tegwick
15828606b4 ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T04: jurisdiction archetypes J1–J4 (perm lever, jurisdictions.py, AdoptionBand § 4, provisional EU/US/AR mapping) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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tegwick
c4b4be4b4c Regenerate agency.md (model version header only) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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